245
FXUS61 KCLE 101856
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
256 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits to the east tonight as a low pressure system
moves east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. The
low will drag a cold front east across the area on Saturday before a
trough lingers across Lake Erie Saturday night into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will exit to the east as an upper level closed low
moves towards the Great Lakes region. Showers will enter the region
as the low moves overhead tonight into Saturday. Best chances for
showers will occur downwind of Lake Erie across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Higher coverage of showers expected
across Northwest Pennyslvania as the upper level low moves
directly overhead. The low will weaken on Saturday night leaving
behind troughing and lingering lake effect rain showers.

Warmer overnight lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s,
slightly cooler in the lower 40s across Northwest Pennsylvania.
Afternoon highs on Saturday will rise into the low to mid 60s
areawide. Widespread lows in the 40s are expected on Saturday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will likely linger through Sunday as the trough remains
across the region. A coastal low pressure system will exit the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday and will pull the trough with it.
This will allow for an upper ridge to build into the region with
showers gradually diminishing Monday into Monday night.
Widespread high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s are
expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will settle in mid to
upper 40s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly dry weather with periods of lake effect rain showers are
expected through the long term. Likely remaining dry on Tuesday
despite a cold front pushing across the region. Some lake effect
rain showers may impact the region on Wednesday as an upper
level trough sags south across the Great Lakes on Wednesday
ahead of surface high pressure moving towards the region. For
now kept PoPs for the middle of next week in the 20-30% range.

Warm on Tuesday with highs in the low 70s ahead of the cold front.
Highs will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s behind the cold front
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR is expected to continue through at least the early part of
tonight with upper-level cirrus. A weak cold front crosses the
area late tonight into Saturday morning which will be
accompanied by scattered rain showers and low stratus with
ceilings around 2500-5000 ft. MVFR ceilings and associated rain
showers will be most likely downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday morning.

Southerly winds around 10 knots continue through this afternoon
before weakening to around 5-8 knots tonight. Winds gradually
become northerly on Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings are possible downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday
night through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow may approach 20 knots in the nearshore
tonight, though a small craft advisory is not expected. A weak
cold front crosses Lake Erie late tonight into Saturday morning
with flow become northwest. There is a low chance for
waterspouts on Saturday and Saturday night. Light and variable
conditions on Saturday will give way to east to northeast flow
through Monday night with speeds averaging around 15 knots. Wind
speeds could briefly approach 20 knots Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. A weak cold front moves across the lake on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders