801
FXUS61 KCLE 251820
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
120 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure departs off the Mid-Atlantic Coast this morning as a
low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold
front will move east Tuesday night into Wednesday before a surface
trough lingers through Friday. A brief high pressure will build over
the area Saturday before the next low pressure impacts the area
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This morning, rain showers will spread northeast across the area as
a low pressure system associated with a shortwave trough moves into
the region. Some showers may be locally heavy at times especially
across the southeastern counties where the greatest support will be
focused. Storm total rainfall is expected to be between 0.25-0.5
inches through this evening which should be handled efficiently by
area basins and keep any flooding threat very minimal. High
temperatures today will climb into the low to mid 50s.

As this initial low pressure moves to the east this evening into the
overnight hours, a deepening low pressure system over the western
Great Lakes will begin to impact the area Tuesday night. This system
will become nearly cut-off and move a very strong cold front east on
Wednesday. This system will bring multiple hazards across the area
along with the return of winter. Here is a breakdown of the
time line/hazards associated with this low:

Synoptic Rain/Snow:

Widespread precipitation associated with the front will remain as
rain ahead of the cold front early Wednesday before transitioning to
a rain/snow mix and eventually to all snow late afternoon into the
early evening. Exact snowfall accumulations through this period
remain a bit tricky to determine given the warmer antecedent
conditions, however with temperatures rapidly falling through the
day Wednesday, some area roadways may still become icy.

Gusty Winds:

As the aforementioned low moves closer to the area, an enhanced
gradient will result in strong winds across the area. Models suggest
LLJ values of 45-55 knots which may mix down to the surface with
sustained winds of 20-35 mph, gusting up to 45 mph. Strongest winds
are expected to be west of I-71 and along the immediate lakeshore.
These gusty winds may cause hazardous travel conditions for high
profile vehicles and may result in localized power outages. Will
continue to monitor forecast trends in the next couple updates as
wind gusts will near Wind Advisory criteria.

Temperatures:

High temperatures on Wednesday will be reached early in the morning
with widespread mid to upper 40s forecast. These temperatures are
expected to rapidly fall throughout the day, dropping into the low
to mid 30s by Wednesday evening. Gusty winds will make temperatures
feel colder than that.

Overall, hazardous weather is expected for much of this period.
Please stay up to date with the latest forecast as these details
become ironed out in future updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
During the short term period, the aforementioned low pressure system
will continue to impact the area as it slowly drift east towards
Quebec. This system will continue to pose multiple hazards through
the period which will likely have significant impacts to the busy
holiday travel expected. Given the complexity and multi-hazard
nature, here is the breakdown.

Synoptic and Lake Effect Snow:

Wednesday night, synoptically driven snow showers will gradually
transition to predominately lake effect snow. The area will remain
under the leading edge of the trough through Wednesday night,
allowing for a maintained southwesterly flow. This will allow for a
singular lake effect band to develop over Lake Erie. Not expecting
much from this band Wednesday night, but it may clip far northern
Erie County in Pennsylvania. By early Thursday morning, the trough
axis will begin to push east of the area, marking the transition to
a more WNW flow. As a result, lake effect snow is expected to push
inland off of Lake Erie and impact the snowbelt. Snow showers are
expect to intensify throughout the day on Thursday with moderate to
heavy snow possible at times. The exact placement of the heaviest
bands remains uncertain which may locally alter the exact snowfall
totals. In general, snowfall accumulations across the Ohio snowbelt
are expected to exceed 8 inches of snow. In the Pennsylvania
snowbelt, snowfall totals are expected to exceed 8 inches as well,
but could exceed over 1 foot of snow where the heaviest bands
persist.

Gusty Winds:

Gusty winds of 20-30 mph will remain possible through Thursday,
especially along the lakeshore where winds may still occasionally
gust up to 45 mph. In addition to the typical wind impacts, blowing
snow may occur which has the potential to quickly reduce/change
visibilities.

Temperatures:

Temperatures through the period will be much cooler with highs on
Thursday and Friday only climbing into the low to mid 30s. Overnight
lows will gradually decrease from lows in the low to mid 20s on
Wednesday night to lows in the upper teens to low 20s by Friday
night. With gusty winds still expected, this will result in wind
chill values in the 20s during the days and in the low to mid teens
overnight.

In summary, this will be an impactful lake effect snow event with
impacts being potentially enhanced given the holiday. Please stay
tuned to the latest forecast and head all local warnings. Avoid
travel if possible, but if venturing out make sure to have a winter
weather kit in the car along and give yourself plenty of time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend,
although not with a plethora of lake effect snow. On Saturday, a
very brief ridge will push east over the area allowing for a brief
period of dry conditions and marking the end of lake effect snow.
Another upper level trough is currently expected to move a Colorado
Low northeast towards the area for Sunday and Monday, resulting in
another period of snow and rain. Initial weather types Saturday
night should remain as all snow before transitioning to all rain on
Sunday as the area will remain on the warm side of the low. There
still remains quite a bit of divergence amongst models for the
timing and placement of this low, but confidence is growing that
there will be a system that impacts the area in the long term
period. Highs through the period will linger in the 30s with
overnight lows persisting in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mostly IFR conditions are observed, though not as much as
originally expected due to a few areas that are stubbornly MVFR.
Rain also encompassed much of the area, with the western edge of
the precipitation near Findlay-Sandusky. Rain will be replaced
this afternoon by isolated to scattered light rain showers or
drizzle, likely persisting through early Wednesday morning.

A drastic change in the weather pattern is expected on Wednesday
as a strong cold front crosses the region through the morning
hours. With it, southwest to west winds will strengthen to gusts
around 30-35 knots, and further strengthen to 35-40 knots after
18Z. Scattered showers redevelop with and behind the cold front.
Precipitation will primarily fall as rain initially before
transitioning to mainly snow from west to east during the
afternoon as temperatures fall to near freezing.

Outlook...MVFR ceilings and some showers persist on Wednesday
with scattered snow showers on Thursday. Lake effect snow
continue across the snowbelt region through Friday, and could be
heavy at times. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered snow showers
will be possible through Thursday night. Wind gusts of 30 to 40
knots will continue into Wednesday night, with wind gusts up to
40 knots near the Lake Erie shoreline through Thursday night.
Widespread rain and/or snow expected Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
The lake will be in the warm sector of a strong low pressure
system today, consolidating over Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Offshore flow will be favored today with rounds of rain across
the region. For tonight into Wednesday, the low pressure system
will extend a strong cold front across the lake. Behind the
front, strong southwest winds will quickly overtake the lake and
accelerate to gale force. The wind forecast for the lake
continues to tick higher and winds to 40 knots seem reasonable
for now with some potential for marginal storm force gusts. As
the parent low pressure system meanders north of the lake, winds
will veer slightly to the west for Thursday and eventually to
the west-northwest for Thursday night into Friday. With the
strong push of southwest to west winds on Wednesday and
Thursday, water levels for the western basin are expected to
recede and should remain below the critical mark for safe
navigation for a 36 to 48 hour period. With all of that, have
gone ahead and upgraded to the Gale Warning for the entire lake
and have a Low Water Advisory for the western basin from 12z
Wednesday to late Thursday night or Friday morning. Elevated
northwest flow will remain on Friday as the main system departs
and suspect that the Gale Warning for the eastern half of the
lake will need to be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. High
pressure will build in from the west for Saturday and lighter
offshore flow will return, allowing for a day without marine
headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
     evening for OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
     evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Low Water Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic