818
FXUS61 KCLE 081106
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning this
afternoon and continuing into the weekend. Highest chances for
precipitation will be Tuesday and Thursday afternoon.

2) Summertime heat and humidity enter the region with peak heat
index values approaching 100 degrees by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure exits to the east today as shortwave aloft approaches
the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and evening. There may be an isolated stronger
thunderstorm given moderate instability (800-1200 J/kg SBCAPE) and
weak deep-layer shear (10-20 knots), though anticipating any storms
this afternoon and evening to remain below severe limits.

Coverage in showers and thunderstorms will increase by Tuesday as a
warm front lifts across the region during the day. Moderate
instability (1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE) develops with increased deep-
layer shear (20-30 knots). The atmosphere will remain moist as PWATs
climb to 2 inches and any thunderstorm that develops will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall. Will keep an eye on any flooding
potential but most of the CWA is in need of a good wetting rain.

There will be periodic daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week despite an upper level ridge building
overhead. Low confidence in coverage and timing beyond Tuesday
depending on the magnitude and placement of the aforementioned
ridge. There is a non-zero chance for severe weather on Thursday as
machine learning guidance shows a 15-30% probability for severe
weather across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. SPC has
highlighted portions just to the west of the CLE CWA in their
extended (Days 4-8) severe outlook for Thursday (June 11).

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Anticipate a period of above normal temperatures with hot and humid
conditions through the end of the week. Summertime temperatures with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be coupled with
dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will also be
on the rise through the week with peak heat index values approaching
100F Wednesday and Thursday. Limited overnight relief as overnight
lows will settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Early season heat is
oftentimes more dangerous and can pose a greater risk for heat-
related illness. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks out of the
sun and in cooled locations!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The aviation forecast for the area is tricky as the atmosphere
becomes a bit unsettled around the 00Z Tuesday time frame and
expecting to see isolated convection for the second half of the
TAF. Tried to time a couple of early onset PROB30 groups, but
way too sporadic for prevailing or even TEMPO groups. That said,
expect towering cumulus during this time frame, and showers and
storms at the terminal cannot be completely ruled out.
Otherwise, VFR on the front end with winds becoming southerly
around 10kts. At CLE, through 18Z Tuesday, expect southerly
winds to become gusty 15-25kts and increased convection chances.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms early Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10-20kts today become offshore tonight 10-15kts with
wave heights 1-2ft today becoming less than a foot in the nearshore
zones tonight into Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds
become southwesterly 10-15kts and remain there through Thursday.
Wave heights nearshore less than 2ft through that period. Showers
and storm possible activity possible beginning tonight through
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26