181
FXUS61 KCLE 131149
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
749 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog is possible this morning.

2) Scattered showers expected tonight through Friday generally
near or west of I-77.

3) Periodic thunderstorms are expected Saturday night through
Sunday evening. There is a low risk for severe weather,
especially Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Moist surface conditions due to yesterday`s rain, and light
surface winds with weak high pressure overhead will result favor
fog formation this morning. Patchy fog is possible across
portions of the forecast area, especially for our southwest
counties (e.g. Hancock to Knox Counties) where there could be
greater coverage of fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The stationary front that has been impacting the broader region
has sagged south towards the lower Ohio Valley. A series of
mid-level shortwaves are expected to traverse the broader
northwest flow, with additional rounds of convection expected.
The latest high resolution models have thunderstorms with heavy
rain displaced to our southwest, with mainly rain showers
affecting parts of northern Ohio tonight into Friday. This is
generally west of I-77 with our southwest counties (Hancock to
Knox Counties) seeing the best shot at rain showers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low pressure moves eastward across the Great Lakes region,
lifting a warm front across the area Saturday night. The entire
forecast area will be within the warm sector on Sunday, with
very humid conditions expected. A couple rounds of thunderstorms
are expected with this system.

The first round of thunderstorms is expected with the warm front
Saturday night, generally moving west to east. This is most
likely to occur overnight, though a few models do linger this
activity into the morning ours, depending on the speed in which
the warm front lifts across the area. There is a low risk for
severe weather.

Additional convective development is expected Sunday afternoon
and evening. High instability along with modest mid-level shear
may produced an organized severe weather threat. As always,
there is some uncertainty with timing/location of greatest
severe weather threat but this time frame is worth keeping an
eye on.

The cold front sweeps through Sunday night with high pressure
building in on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Fog will burn off over the next 1 to 2 hours, but lingering low
to mid-level clouds will keep MVFR cigs in place at most
terminals through early afternoon before scattering out to VFR
for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Showers in southwest
Ohio could get as far north as KFDY this evening and tonight,
but there will be a sharp cut off, and confidence is increasing
that this will avoid the other terminals. Could be close for
KMFD, but left out of the TAF. Otherwise, we will need to
monitor the extent of fog formation again tonight, so started to
bring in MVFR to IFR visibilities to the typical terminals.

Light and variable winds early this morning will become W to NW
at 5-10 knots by late morning through the evening before turning
light S tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through the start of
the weekend as pressure gradients will be weak. Light and
variable winds today and tonight will become ENE at 5-10 knots
Friday and Friday night as high pressure briefly strengthens
across the Great Lakes before turning SE at 5-10 knots Saturday
as a warm front approaches the lake. Winds will turn SW and
increase to 15-20 knots by Sunday behind the warm front as the
gradient tightens in response to low pressure moving east
through the central Great Lakes. This low will drag a cold front
across the lake Sunday night, turning winds NNW at 10-15 knots
for late Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas