457
FXUS61 KCLE 020633
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
133 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Made a few adjustments to pops for today to keep the potential
for light showers across the area, especially across the
southwest counties, but no other changes were needed and the
remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue to drift east off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast through tomorrow with gradually warming temperatures expected.
Light, scattered rain shower are possible throughout today.

2) Widespread showers arrive on Wednesday as a low pressure system
moves into the region. Lingering showers are expected into Thursday,
especially across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure that is slowly drifting east and off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast will continue to influence the area through Tuesday. A
dominant southerly flow has developed across the area as a result of
the positioning of the high, which has allowed for an increase in
both moisture and warm air advection into the area. Temperatures
across the area this morning remain mild with most locations in the
mid to upper 50s with dewpoints in the 40s. These mild temperatures
will translate to highs today climbing into the mid to upper 60s.
With increasing moisture in the entire column, a push of mid-level
energy across the area today may be enough for light rain showers to
develop and to reach the surface instead of evaporating. Overall
coverage will remain scattered with the highest confidence across
western counties. By tonight, the mid-level energy will shift east
and allow for widespread dry conditions to arrive for Tuesday.
Tuesday will see temperatures well above normal as a warm front
lifts north across the area and temperatures surge into the 70s.
Some areas will flirt with record setting warmth on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A notable shift in the weather pattern will occur on Wednesday as a
deepening trough over the central US moves a surface low into the
region. This system will move a preliminary cold front east across
the area on Wednesday, providing a focal point for widespread
showers to develop. Given the persistent moisture advection into the
area, rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25-0.5 inches of
precipitation. Given the prolonged dry period leading into this
system, basins should be able to handle this amount of precipitation
without problem, however in areas that see heavy rainfall there may
be locally increased runoff. In addition, given a strong LLJ of 40-
50 knots pushing into the area and decent upper level support from
the vort max and jet, there is a non-zero chance for thunder
Wednesday afternoon but no severe weather is expected.

On Thursday, showers will gradually taper from west to east before a
lake effect processes take over and keep shower chances across
portions of the snowbelt into Friday. Additional shower activity is
possible into the weekend as a series of upper level troughs pushes
east through the region. Temperatures are expected to remain above
normal through the middle of the week before dipping closer to
normal by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. A bit of moisture and
lift aloft is leading to mid-level clouds and perhaps a few
sprinkles/light showers that will be around through Monday. Any
rain that reaches the ground will be quite light and is not
expected to bring any vsby restrictions. Ceilings at or below
5000 feet will slowly overspread most of the area from west-east
on Monday, with a potential window for MVFR remaining mainly
west of CLE. Winds will remain mainly southerly through the TAF
period, increasing a bit to 5-10kt during the day Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to drift east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
through Tuesday, allowing for a persistent south-southwesterly flow
through that time. Winds today will be 5-12 knots before increasing
to 10-15 knots on Tuesday. Given the offshore flow, waves along the
southern lakeshore will remain 2 feet or less. On Wednesday, a low
pressure system will move into the region, pushing a cold front east
late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds on Wednesday will be south-
southeasterly at 15-20 knots before shifting to southwesterly
Wednesday night and weakening to 10-15 knots behind the front. A
brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday given the
stronger winds, however given the marginal forecast at this point,
confidence in needing a headline is low. The southwest winds will
persist through Thursday before a surface trough lingers on Friday
and winds become northwesterly at 10-15 knots. This late week period
may need an additional Small Craft Advisory if wind speeds trend
closer to 20 knots in future updates.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
11-03   77(1987)       76(2015)       79(1961)       80(1961)       80(1961)       80(1961)
11-04   80(2003)       77(2015)       79(2003)       76(2015)       77(2003)       78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...04