555
FXUS61 KCLE 281741
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
141 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Still tracking the evolution of the convection across the CWA this
early pre-dawn morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Post MCS environment with cold front coming through today and lake
enhanced showers tonight.

2) High pressure for the end of the week, but becoming unsettled again
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Will be focusing this part of the forecast in the wake of the
ongoing convective activity in the Great Lakes. Low pressure to
shift to the east of the CWA today with a cold front coming through
across Lake Erie by 18Z today. Expect some additional convective
activity along the cold front but the possibility for severe at this
point should be greatly diminished. Storms that form will be
fighting dry air aloft and limited instability, but thunder should
still be expected in a scattered nature as the cold front tracks
through. From there, the whole stacked low pressure system to the
east will strengthen, and create a brief period where weak trough
axes rotating through in the cyclonic flow and cool air over the
warm lake will produce lake enhanced showers late this evening into
tonight. Expecting a small amount of near surface based CAPE capped
at around 800mb with an inversion at that level. High pressure
building from the west will shut this potential for showers down
fairly quickly.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure and dry weather with a cooler airmass settles into
place for the end of the week. Conditions will begin to become
unsettled over the weekend with a 500mb trough moving into the Great
Lakes via the upper Mississippi Valley accompanied with an inverted
surface trough from surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi
Valley. Will expect convective chances to increase with gradually
rising dewpoints once again and temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
SCT/BKN cumulus field remains in place this afternoon with
ceilings generally in the 2,500-5,000 ft range. Skies should
tend to become FEW/SCT through this evening, especially west of
I-77. Some lake effect/enhanced clouds will redevelop this
evening into tonight following the passage of a secondary cold
front, with additional MVFR clouds expected for parts of
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania late tonight. MVFR
clouds should mostly clear up by daybreak with VFR conditions
expected with FEW/SCT cumulus clouds during the day Wednesday.

Northerly winds around 10-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots
expected this afternoon and again tomorrow, with light winds of
around 5 knots overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered thunderstorms will push southeast across Lake Erie
through early this morning with locally higher winds and waves
possible. Otherwise, elevated southwesterly to westerly winds
15-20 knots will become northerly at 15-25 knots by daybreak as
a cold front sinks south across the lake. Onshore flow will
allow for wave heights in the central and eastern basins to
build to 4-7 feet. Highest winds and waves will be in the
central basin. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards
Statements remain in effect to highlight the timeframe of
highest risk to small craft and beach goers through Wednesday
evening.

Northwest winds decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday as high
pressure approaches from the west. Light and variable flow
returns Friday with largely offshore light winds anticipated
into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for
     OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...13