215
FXUS61 KCLE 032328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east across the area this
afternoon before exiting to the east this evening. High pressure
will briefly build into the Ohio Valley tonight through Tuesday with
a warm front lifting into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
cold front will cross the local area on Wednesday as low
pressure moves northeast over the central Great Lakes.
Additional systems will move across the area late this week into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will sweep east across the area this afternoon before
exiting to the east this evening. The only notable impact from this
front will be gusty winds to 25 to 35 mph prior to sunset with
periodic gusts to 40+ mph likely along the immediate lakeshore of NE
OH/NW PA this afternoon. Light returns are present on radar, but
generally expect virga until the showers encounter a corridor of
better moisture over NE OH/NW PA this afternoon. Any precip will be
quick to exit into north-central PA and western NY by late afternoon
or early evening. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through the
remainder of the near term period with skies efficiently clearing
tonight. Some high clouds will begin to work northeast into the area
during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts
northeast from the Ohio Valley.

Lows will fall into the 30s tonight, although locations downwind
from Lake Erie across NE OH/NW PA will likely have lows in the 40s.
Tuesday`s highs will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the
upper 30s and mid 40s anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The next opportunity for breezy winds and lake-enhanced showers will
arrive on Wednesday as low pressure lifts northeast across the
central Great Lakes, pushing another cold front east across the CWA.
The stronger winds will be located along the immediate lakeshore of
NE OH/NW PA, especially as winds shift to the northwest behind the
cold front. High pressure will briefly return for Thursday with dry
weather and lighter winds expected. PoPs begin to increase from the
west Thursday night as yet another system approaches from the west,
although the majority of the rain chances should occur during the
day Friday (see long term discussion below).

Temperatures will increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with
widespread upper 50s and 60s expected areawide. High temperatures
will be in the cooler upper 40s and low to mid 50s Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Multiple systems will move across the area during the long term
period, resulting in periods of precipitation and gusty winds.
Deep low pressure will track east across the Upper Great Lakes
Friday and its associated cold front will move east across the
local area at some point during the day. Widespread rain is
likely across the area during the day Friday with precip
becoming more lake-enhanced Friday night into Saturday. On
Sunday, low pressure will likely move east across southern
Ontario with its attending cold front tracking east across the
CWA. Additional rain showers and breezy conditions are likely
for the end of the weekend with the highest PoPs across NE OH/NW
PA due to lake enhancement. A colder air mass will arrive just
behind this front and the first snowflakes of the season are
possible in post-frontal and lake effect showers Sunday night
through Monday. Still too early to dive into any specifics on
potential accumulation and timing/placement of any snow, but
will continue to keep an eye on the forecast in the upcoming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The cold front has cleared the region to the east and high
pressure begins to build in tonight leading to quiet weather and
VFR conditions through the TAF period. There are a few lingering
clouds across northwestern Pennsylvania with heights around
030-040 over KERI. All other terminals will stay clear
overnight with some mid level clouds moving in from the west
tomorrow morning with little impact expected.

Winds are beginning to subside this evening as well. A few
terminals across the region are still gusting around 15-20 knots
mainly across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania to
include KERI. These should start to taper off over the next
couple of hours, though KERI will continue to gust with the
southeasterly wind coming off the lake. Overnight, winds will
be between 7-12 knots out of the west-southwest across most
terminals. Towards to the end of the TAF period, winds will
start to shift out of the south due to the high pressure
shifting further off to the east and a warm front moving south
to north across the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR in showers and gusty winds are possible
Wednesday and Wednesday night and again on Friday. Another
system will likely bring non-VFR conditions for the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front has crossed two-thirds of the lake so far this
afternoon and will continue departing to the east this evening.
Winds are shifting to the west with the cold frontal passage and
winds in the 20 to 30 kt range are expected through the night
with brief gale force winds continuing for the eastern basin.
High pressure building from the southwest tonight into Tuesday
will relax flow and there should be a brief period without any
marine headlines with the weaker offshore flow across the
region. Low pressure with a cold front will enter for Wednesday
and winds on the lake will increase and shift to the west.
Another round of small craft headlines will be needed for the
lake for Wednesday and Wednesday Night. High pressure will
return for Thursday and offshore flow will return to the lake
and should allow for another 24 hour period without marine
headlines. A strong low pressure system is still on track to
impact the Great Lakes region for Friday into this weekend and
additional periods of winds over 20 kts are likely with
additional marine headlines needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>144.
     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ147-148.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ149-169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...23
MARINE...Sefcovic