353
FXUS61 KCLE 162338
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There continues to be a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
storms and a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall
for locations roughly along and south of US-224.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday as
a front oscillates about the Ohio Valley.

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible late Saturday,
potentially lingering in east-central and central Ohio into
early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A slow-moving front continues to slowly drift to the south
across the Ohio Valley, including across parts of northern and
northeast OH. Periodic showers and storms are expected through
the day today into tonight, with locally heavy rain and isolated
flooding remaining the primary concern. Anomalous PWs on the
order of 200+% of seasonal norms remain draped across the
region. This, combined with very deep warm cloud depths, provide
an environment conducive for torrential downpours and localized
flooding, especially in the more persistent or training
activity. This is most likely across parts of northwest/west-
central Ohio through this evening, but the greatest coverage
will spread east into north-central Ohio late this evening into
tonight.

There is also the potential for a few strong to severe storms
today as well, primarily late afternoon through this evening
near/south of US Highway 224 into parts of north-central and
northwest OH. Given the steep low level lapse rates but rather
marginal midlevel lapse rates, the primary concern with this
activity will be strong to isolated damaging wind gusts,
especially from 21z to 03z. It is important to note that
scattered to numerous storms are expected to persist past 03z,
although the severe risk will be waning late into the evening.
The heavy rain and flash flood potential will probably increase
a bit after dark through the overnight with fairly widespread
coverage expected during this time frame, particularly for
north-central OH.

Although there may be subtle episodic wobbles in the front
position into the day Thursday, very little pronounced movement
in the moist airmass is expected until Thursday night into
early Friday. The front will sag south Thursday night as
Canadian high pressure builds overhead from the north. The
forecast is trending drier Thursday night through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure and tranquil weather will build into northern and
northeast OH Thursday night through the day Friday, with drier
air and seasonable temperatures.

The front will surge back to the north into the daytime
Saturday, bringing anomolously-high PWs back north with it.
This will allow for a reintroduction of shower and storm
chances, particularly by late in the day into Saturday night as
S/W energy works E through the southern Great Lakes. Widespread
storms are expected once again, particularly Saturday evening
through the overnight, with some potential for activity to
linger into the daytime Sunday.

The min concern for this time frame will be the heavy rainfall
threat. Area PWs remain high with the potential for 1-3 inches
of rainfall across Lower Michigan into Northern Ohio. WPC has
maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) across northwestern and
north-central OH for Saturday (ending 12z Sunday).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Rain showers and thunderstorms continue to move through Central
Ohio. Thunderstorms are moving to the east-southeast and are
impacting KMFD for the next couple of hours, then KCAK and KYNG
within a few hours. These have been dropping visibility down to
MVFR/IFR conditions briefly before rebounding to VFR. In
addition, there could be gusty winds near 30 knots with
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms should taper off over
the next several hours.

Ceilings will drop at all terminals overnight tonight down to
IFR conditions and persist through the morning. Recovery to MVFR
is not expected until 10-14Z and will continue through the TAF
period. There is a chance for showers tomorrow afternoon across
the southern terminals, though confidence is low.

Winds will be fairly light across the region at less than 5
knots through much of the TAF period and vary between southerly
and westerly. By tomorrow morning, winds will become primarily
out of the west to northwest at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms
Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Flow is becoming northerly to northeasterly between 10-15
knots through Thursday. Northerly onshore flow increases to
12-18 knots Thursday night into Friday, which may briefly lead
to choppy conditions across nearshore zones in the central
basin. For Friday evening into Sunday, winds will waver between
easterly to northeasterly at 12-18 knots. Wave heights may
build to 2-4 feet across the nearshore zones in the eastern
basin on Sunday under northwest flow 15-20 knots. Northeast flow
will increase to about 25kts by Sunday night. Numerous rounds
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the lake
now through Thursday and again Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...13