102
FXUS61 KCLE 101128 AAA
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern in store as a strong low pressure system
moves through the Great Lakes region. The low will drag a cold front
east across the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface
trough lingers across Lake Erie on Friday while a weak low pressure
system moves through the Ohio Valley. Another cold front
crosses the region on Saturday before high pressure enters on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deepening low pressure will glide through the southern Great Lakes
region through the near term. The low will move a cold front east
across the local area during the afternoon/evening today. Initial
burst of precipitation will continue to spread across the region.
Generally expecting mostly rain across the western half of the
forecast area, a rain/snow mix along the I-71 corridor, and wet snow
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The snowfall
forecast has trended slightly higher across Northeast Ohio and have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Geauga and Ashtabula
Counties where 3-6" of snowfall is expected. Expect for a snowy and
slick commute Wednesday morning given the timing of highest snowfall
rates with the greatest impacts expected in the Winter Weather
Advisory area.

A brief dry slot moves overhead late this morning/early afternoon
behind the initial push of precipitation before the cold front pushes
east later this afternoon/evening. Precipitation should transition
to all snow with the frontal passage as temperatures drop. Most
of the area will see an inch of less of snowfall with the cold
front through temperatures will rapidly fall which may lead to
some slick spots on roadways during the evening commute.
Snowfall will diminish from west to east with the frontal
passage before lake effect snow develops Wednesday evening
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Generally
anticipate an additional 2-4" across Northeast Ohio, 3-5" across
Crawford County PA, and 5-10" across Erie County PA with lake
effect snowfall Wednesday night through Thursday. Have upgraded
the Winter Weather Advisory for Erie County PA to a Winter Storm
Warning as snowfall amounts through the duration of the event
could exceed 10-14" where lake effect bands persist. Given that
the event is a mix of both synoptic and lake enhanced snow,
opted for a Winter Storm Warning as opposed to a Lake Effect
Snow Warning.

Highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s before lows fall into the
upper teens to lower 20s tonight behind the cold front. Remaining
chilly in the upper 20s on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect snow showers will diminish Thursday night
into Friday morning as a drier airmass and high pressure move
into the region. Another clipper will approach the region from
the northwest while weakening on Friday. The system will graze
the local forecast area to the southwest but can`t rule out
some light snow across southwestern portions of the forecast
area Friday morning. Another low pressure system and associated
cold front will impact the Great Lakes region on Saturday
bringing an additional chance for areawide snow showers
Saturday and lake-effect snow returning Saturday night. Highs
in the upper 20s on Friday fall into the low to mid 20s on
Saturday. Overnight lows in the teens are expected Thursday and
Friday night. Much colder on Saturday night with single digit to
lower 10s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An Arctic airmass will impact the region on Sunday with most
guidance showing 850mb temperatures falling to the -18 to -20C
range. This cold air aloft coupled with fairly saturated mid/low
levels and northwesterly mean layer flow suggest that lake effect
snow mentioned above will likely continue into the day on Sunday
before high pressure glides through the region on Monday. Highs in
the teens to low 20s with chilly overnight lows in the single digits
Sunday night. The high will exit to the east through early next week
allowing for temperatures to moderate into the upper 20s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Aviation weather conditions vary greatly across the area this
morning and will be that way through much of today into
tonight. The overall message for aviation weather is expect
variable and changing conditions with mostly lower end MVFR to
IFR ceilings and visibility today into this evening. A strong
clipper system is bring a light rain/snow mix across the area
today with strong gusty winds as well. The general trend will be
falling ceilings through MVFR to IFR today for all TAF
locations. There will be periods of rain and or rain/snow mix at
times for most of the TAF sites that will bring down
visibilities to 2sm to 5sm. It is likely that YNG and ERI will
stay mostly snow today into tonight.

A strong cold front will move through late this afternoon and
early evening. Rain will change back over to all light snow and
lake effect snow showers late today into tonight. Lake enhanced
and lake effect snow showers will return this evening and
overnight for the Snowbelt, impacting CLE, YNG and ERI. In the
lake effect snow showers tonight, ceilings will be in the MVFR
to IFR and visibilities varying from 1sm to 5sm at times. Winds
will be elevated and gusty today into tonight. Winds will start
out from the south-southwest this morning 15 to 25 knots with
gusts up to 35 knots very possible. Winds will become westerly
to northwesterly behind the cold frontal passage late this
afternoon and evening 15 to 20 knots with gusts over 25 knots
into this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected to continue for portions of the
Snowbelt in lake effect snow showers through Thursday night.
Widespread light snow and non-VFR likely with a weather system
and another cold front Saturday. Non-VFR likely this weekend
with lake effect snow in the Snowbelt.

&&

.MARINE...
Rough marine weather conditions are expected to continue through the
end of this week and into the weekend. A strong clipper low pressure
system is currently moving through the Great Lakes region and will
deepen to 988 mb as it tracks north of Lake Erie later today. Winds
will increase from the south and southwest this morning 25 to 35
knots for most of the basin of Lake Erie. Gale warnings will take
into effect at 4 AM and continue through this evening. Waves in the
open water will build 10 to 16 feet with occasional waves up to
20 feet. With the southwesterly Gales today, water levels may
drop to near the critical mark for safe marine navigation on the
western basin of Lake Erie. We will keep an eye on trends and
monitor these lower water levels for the potential of a Low
Water Advisory later today.

After the strong low pressure system passes by, a strong cold front
will move across the lake with northwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots
tonight. Waves in the open water this evening will start out 8 to 15
but gradually subside to 5 to 9 feet late tonight. Additional Small
Craft Advisories will be needed and replace the Gale Warning when
they expire this evening. SCA conditions will continue for Thursday
into Thursday night with west-northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots and
waves 4 to 8 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet on Thursday.
Waves will gradually start to subside late Thursday night
between 3 and 5 feet.

A brief break in between weather system will arrive on Friday.
Southwest winds 15 to 30 knots will develop on Friday into Friday
night ahead of the next approaching clipper system. We may have a
brief lull in SCA conditions on Friday but will likely see winds and
waves ramping back up ahead of the next system. Another strong cold
front will arrive on Saturday with west to northwest winds 15 to 30
knots and waves building higher again. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for OHZ013-014.
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ002.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143>149-
     163>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77