884
FXUS61 KCLE 041944
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will build into the Ohio Valley overnight followed by a warm
front lifting north on Friday. The next cold front will push back
south on Friday night. High pressure will return for the first part
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rain has mostly exited the area with the cold front extending from
upstate New York to near Pittsburgh at 3 PM. Clouds will continue to
scatter out from west to east as a dry slot and large scale
subsidence arrives. Surface high pressure will build east across the
Ohio Valley tonight with most areas seeing clearing skies and lows
ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

The pattern remains active in the near term as we contend with
multiple pieces of energy rotating around the upper level trough
over Ontario. A compact upper level wave will dive south out of
Central Canada and round the base of the upper trough. Surface low
pressure over North Dakota today will deepen as it moves towards the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan while deepening to 992mb. Southerly
flow ramps up ahead of this feature with a 45 knot low level jet
crossing NW Ohio and Lake Erie on Friday morning. Strong low level
warm advection will push high temperatures into the mid 70s to near
80 degrees across the local area. We do start to see scattered
clouds Friday afternoon and even a low end 20 percent chance of a
shower with moisture streaming northeast. Better chances for rain
hold off until Friday night as shortwave energy streams northeast
along the frontal boundary. Chances of rain are focused generally
southeast of a line from Marion to Cleveland to Erie, PA.
Precipitation amounts are forecast to be light at generally under a
quarter inch of rain through Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The region will continue to be under the influence of the upper
level trough through the weekend. A shortwave lifts northeast across
the area on Saturday, helping to push the front and dry slot aloft
eastward. Skies will become partly cloudy from west to east through
the day on Saturday. 850mb temperatures fall by approximately 6C
from Friday`s values limiting high temperatures to the 60s.

Models have come into better agreements with one more piece of
energy diving southeast out of Canada and crossing the Central Great
Lakes on Saturday night. Moisture will increase with west southwest
flow and low level convergence across Lake Erie. Lake to 850mb delta
T reach 18C supporting lake effect rain showers. Raised pops to 50-
60 percent along the lakeshore late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The duration of well aligned flow and deeper moisture only
lasts through Sunday morning before getting disrupted. High pressure
expands into the Ohio Valley on Sunday and good cooling conditions
are likely Sunday night. Lows will be below normal in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad high pressure over the region on Monday will build to New
England through mid-week. This will provide another stretch of dry
conditions and gradually warming temperatures as heights rebound
aloft. A back door cold front with limited moisture is on the
horizon towards the end of the period as another area of high
pressure builds south out of Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The cold front will continue to depart to the east through this
evening with any lingering showers out exiting eastern terminals
over the next hour or so. Dry weather and VFR conditions are
expected to push from west to east behind the cold front with
widespread VFR conditions expected 21Z/Thu through the
remainder of the TAF window.

Northwesterly winds 8-10 knots will turn southerly while
decreasing below 5 knots tonight. Light southerly winds turn
southwesterly Friday morning while increasing to 12-15 knots
sustained. Gusty winds 25-30 knots will be likely across all
terminals late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with a cold front/low pressure system
Friday night into Saturday and lake effect clouds and rain in
NE OH/NW PA on Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will exit the eastern basin of Lake Erie this evening
while a brief area of high pressure builds overhead tonight. There
is a slight chance of waterspouts across the central basin of Lake
Erie tonight. Northwesterly to westerly winds will diminish to 5-10
knots tonight. Ahead of another cold front, southwesterly winds
increase to 20-30 knots Friday morning. Winds will turn
northwesterly behind the cold front Friday night but remain elevated
between 15-20 knots. Wave heights will build to 4 to 6 feet Friday
afternoon and evening as winds turn onshore. Another set of Small
Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements has been issued Friday
morning through late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Given the
strong southwesterly winds, water levels in the western basin of
Lake Erie will likely drop near or below 6 inches above low water
datum, the critical mark for safe navigation. Westerly winds
diminish to 10-15 knots on Saturday as a trough lingers over the
lake through Sunday. Vast high pressure will build over the Great
Lakes region to begin next week with light offshore winds expected
through midweek.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through late
     Friday night for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through late
     Friday night for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13