315
FXUS61 KCLE 300935
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
435 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drag a surface trough across the area tonight.
Weak high pressure will build across the region on Monday,
followed by another low pressure system moving northeast from the
Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. A strong cold front
will move south through the Great Lakes late Wednesday into
Thursday, followed by another area of weak high pressure on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures continue to rise across the area this morning as
strong warm air advection arrives ahead of a deepening low
pressure system to the northwest. Most headlines have been
dropped with this update, though Winter Weather Advisories
remain for Lucas and Wood Counties given a few persistent slick
spots and slightly cooler temperatures in place. These
headlines can likely be canceled around sunrise as temperatures
continue to rise ahead of an approaching cold front.

Further towards the west across IL, surface observations this
morning reveal peak wind gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range as a
cold front moves east through the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes
region. Anticipate that North and Northwest Ohio will experience
a similar magnitude of winds later this morning and early
afternoon as the front pushes through the area, though can`t
rule out a few isolated higher gusts of 45 to 50 mph. Given
lower confidence in coverage and duration, opted against a Wind
Advisory at this time.

Otherwise, attention then turns towards later this evening and
overnight as a surface trough swings south through the Great
Lakes behind the cold front, ushering in a band of lake-enhanced
snow across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
inland Erie County, PA where the heaviest snow accumulations of
3 to 5 inches and rates up to 1 inch per hour are expected,
particularly later this evening. Outside of inland Erie County,
rates will peak near 0.75 inch per hour late this evening,
generally from Cleveland and eastwards towards Northwest
Pennsylvania. Some lake effect snow may begin to develop with a
Huron connection late tonight into Monday morning across
Northwest Pennsylvania, though it is likely to be short-lived as
a weak area of high pressure builds east through the Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concern for the short term period will be the potential for
an area-wide accumulating snow late Monday night into Tuesday
as a coastal storm takes shape near the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence
continues to be on the medium to medium-high side (50-60%) to
see at least 2 inches of snow. Probabilities continue to be on
the lower end (20 to 30%) for at least 4 inches of snow, though
recent trends appear to be tightening up the snowfall gradient,
with locations generally along and east of the I-71 corridor
having the greatest potential to receive any higher end amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong cold front will move south though the Great Lakes
Wednesday night into Thursday, ushering in a cold air mass
across the region with recent guidance suggesting 850 mb
temperatures falling briefly to -15 degrees C on Thursday. High
pressure will quickly build behind the front by Thursday night
into Friday, though can`t rule out a few inches of fluffy snow
across the snowbelt with the front and any brief lake effect,
particularly late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Otherwise, with the cold air mass and the arrival of high
pressure, much of the area could see single digit or perhaps a
few pockets of sub-zero wind chills late Thursday night into
Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Heaviest snow showers are nearly out of the local area with the
majority of TAF sites rebounding to VFR. Light snow showers will
return from west to east over the next few hours bringing a
return to MVFR cigs/vis areawide. These snow showers will
transition to a rain/snow mix between 09Z/Sun and 13Z/Sun. A
cold front crosses eastward which will allow for remaining
rain/snow showers to diminish between 13Z/Sun and 15Z/Sun. MVFR
to IFR ceilings are expected to linger behind the cold front
through the TAF window. Lingering surface troughing will allow
for lake effect snow showers to develop downwind of Lake Erie
near the end of the TAF window. Have a PROB30 for reductions to
cig/vis in lake effect snow showers at KERI late Sunday
afternoon.

Southeasterly surface winds generally 10-15 knots sustained
with gusts 20-25 knots. Ahead of the cold front(~10Z/Sun), winds
shift southerly and increase to 15-20 knots sustained with
gusts to 25-30 knots. Behind the cold front winds turn westerly
and remain elevated Sunday morning and afternoon. Peak wind
gusts are expected to occur between 15Z/Sun and 21Z/Sun with
gusts 30-35 knots possible during this time frame. Wind speeds
remain elevated but will decrease slightly as a narrow ridge of
high pressure begins to spread overhead near the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...Non-VFR with periodic precip, mainly in the form of
snow, are expected Sunday afternoon through this Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will deepen today as it tracks from Chicago northeast
across Lake Huron this afternoon, pulling a cold front east across
Lake Erie. Southerly winds will veer to southwesterly and increase
to 40 knot gales. A gale warning is in effect for the whole lake
except for the nearshore waters west of Reno Beach. The strong
southwesterly winds will also cause a dramatic drop in water levels
on the western basin of Lake Erie. Water levels are forecast to fall
quickly this morning, reaching nearly 4 feet below chart datum by
midday or early afternoon. Water levels will improve through this
evening as winds shift to the northwest and decrease.

Gale Warnings are in effect through 4 PM west of Vermilion, 7 PM
from Vermilion to Willowick, and until 1 AM on the eastern third of
Lake Erie. Waves are expected to build to 13-17 feet on the east
half of the lake. Small Craft Advisories will be needed as Gale
Warnings expire to account for high waves lingering through
tonight as winds shift to northwesterly.

An active weather pattern will continue on Lake Erie this week.
Conditions improve quickly on Monday as high pressure builds east
across the southern Great Lakes Region. Weak low pressure will track
through the Ohio Valley on Monday night which will bring a window of
onshore winds of near 15 knots for a period of time on Tuesday.
Southwest winds ramp up up to 20-30 knots on Wednesday ahead of a
cold front approaching from the northwest. Winds shift to the west
and northwest with the passage of the cold front and another round
of Small Craft Advisories are likely.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     OHZ003-006.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Monday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ142.
     Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ143-144-163-
     164.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ145-146-165-
     166.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ147>149.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for
     LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13