612
FXUS61 KCLE 131146
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
646 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley today and move east
through Saturday. A warm front will move north across the region on
Saturday with a cold front sweeping through late Saturday into
Sunday. High pressure will build across the region to start the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will begin to build into the region today as a larger
upper level ridge builds into central CONUS. Any lingering lake
effect showers across northwestern Pennsylvania have ended and the
main bands of precipitation coming off of Lake Huron are focused
more into New York. There will still be some lake effect clouds
across far northeastern Ohio and Pennsylvania, but chances for
precipitation going forward will be low to zero. High temperatures
today will be mid to upper 40s with areas out west seeing 50.
Overnight lows tonight into Friday will be down into the low 30s for
much of the region. Pleasant weather is expected for the remainder
of the week as an expansive high pressure continues to build in the
southeastern quadrant of the CONUS. By midday Friday, the high axis
will be off to the east of the region and flow will shift to be out
of the west-southwest and temperatures will begin to warm. Highs on
Friday will reach into the low to mid 50s for the western half of
the CWA and the eastern half being into the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge will start to build off to the east Friday
night into Saturday with the accompanying surface high pressure
building south off the east coast. An upper level trough will deepen
across south-central Canada at this time with a developing surface
low pressure system. During the day Saturday a warm front will move
northeast across the region bringing an influx of moisture from the
southwest into the region. Precipitation chances will increase
throughout the day as the front passes through with the highest
chances in eastern Ohio and into Pennsylvania. The corresponding cold
front will sweep through late Saturday night into Sunday with a more
widespread chance for precipitation for the region. Behind the
front, precipitation will linger across the snowbelt due to an
influx of cold air from the northwest. Rain will be the primary form
of precipitation throughout the day on Sunday outside of any
elevated areas, but will change over to mainly snow with a
rain/snow mix closer to the lakeshore by Sunday night as
temperatures fall.


For temperatures for the rest of the short term, on Saturday highs
will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s with the passing warm front,
though could be muted some given the precipitation and widespread
cloud cover. Sunday, highs will much lower down into the mid 40s.
Overnight lows during the time period will be in the upper 30 to low
40s to start and drop into the upper 20s to low 30s with the CAA
behind the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Canadian high pressure should build into the Great Lakes region to
start next week with temperatures below average. A feature to watch
during this time frame would be a shortwave moving across the
central CONUS. Currently, models tend to vary on the progression of
this feature as it exists the western plains with some deamplifying
the wave and others having it persist eastward through the Ohio
Valley. Saying that, if this feature continues into the Ohio Valley,
then it could bring another round of precipitation to the area on
Tuesday. Though at this time, the main precipitation type will be in
the form of rain. For temperatures, they will continue to be below
average across the region for both highs and overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as the southern Great
Lakes region will be wedged between a lingering trough over the
eastern Great Lakes and high pressure building NE from the Mid
Mississippi Valley. This will yield mainly clear skies except
for some scattered high clouds for the Ohio terminals, but a BKN
to OVC cloud deck between 5 and 6 thousand feet will linger at
KERI much of today before finally scattering out tonight. The
main impact will be gusty WNW winds this afternoon when most
sites will see gusts to near 20 knots. Gusts of 20-25 knots are
likely for KERI. Winds will diminish to 5-10 knots this evening
and become SSW tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers on Saturday and
Sunday. Non-VFR will remain possible in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania in lake effect snow showers Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
W to NW winds will remain elevated in the 15-25 knot range over
the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie today as a tight
pressure gradient remains stubborn between a lingering trough
over the eastern Great Lakes and ridge of high pressure building
northeastward from the Mid Mississippi Valley. This will keep
wave heights in the 4 to 8 foot range this morning, gradually
diminishing this afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory from the
Islands to Vermilion will expire at 12Z this morning, but
extended the Small Craft Advisory from Vermilion to Avon Point
until 00Z this evening. Otherwise, the Small Craft Advisory from
Avon Point to Ripley, NY remains in effect through 08Z Friday. W
to NW winds diminish to 5-10 knots tonight while becoming S
Friday. S winds then increase to 10-15 knots Friday night,
turning SW and further increasing to 15-25 knots Saturday ahead
of a strong cold front. Winds turn WNW at 20-30 knots behind the
front Saturday night and Sunday, slowly diminishing Sunday night
and Monday, so another period of Small Craft headlines will be
needed Saturday through at least Sunday night and possibly into
Monday. Winds will be near Gales Saturday night and Sunday in
the central and eastern basins given the deepening low lifting
into the eastern Great Lakes, strong cold air advection, and
post frontal pressure rises.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas