959
FXUS61 KCLE 061838
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
238 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Showers and storms expected today ahead of a cold front that will
track through the region tonight with potentially severe level
storms.

2.) Heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge
builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
Increased POPS to likely and categorical across the western and
southern counties through early afternoon as an MCS propagates
southeastward across the area. This complex is not being modeled
well at all by the CAMS, but it appears to be an old MCV that
regenerated a new line of convection due to downstream heating.
Strong warm air advection is rapidly raising dew points into the
mid 60s this morning, and with plenty of sunshine ahead of the
line and the increasing low-level moisture, expect it to
continue southeastward across the area. Surface based CAPE is
marginal (around 1000 J/Kg), but with around 30 knots of
effective bulk shear oriented normal to the line, there will be
a marginal threat for severe winds at times from about Findlay
to Mt. Vernon.

This morning complex results in a high amount of uncertainty
regarding the redevelopment of convection ahead of the cold
front this afternoon and evening. It is possible that a trailing
outflow boundary causes all new convection to develop south of
our CWA for the late afternoon and evening, so this will be
reevaluated with this afternoon`s forecast package.


KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers moving through Michigan and southern Ontario due to a
prefrontal surface trough and the emergence of a low level jet will
likely begin to dip southward into our CWA over the next several
hours. These will be largely low QPF producers and scattered in
nature, and not every location will receive rain this morning. As we
get into the daytime hours, flow aloft becomes cyclonic, and with
daytime heating, expecting not only a significant increase in the
instability, but a lowering of the CAPE as well. Column RH could lag
a bit, but do not expect that to be an inhibiting factor to
convection today. Models now showing an increase in the 0-6km bulk
shear compared to last night with 50kts, and could now see this
development becoming a line or cluster of storms moving mainly
northwest to southeast through the CWA. Expecting mainly damaging
winds as a the threat, and this potentially severe convection should
initiate after 18Z when insolation has had time to destabilize after
morning cloud cover exits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure in the wake of the cold front Sunday and Monday in
slightly cooler weather and convective chances returning Tuesday
thanks to a relatively high amplitude upper level trough axis moving
through. Another more persistent upper level ridge will move in for
the rest of the forecast period, through the end of the week, and
will mark a period where very warm temperatures should build in
along with higher dewpoints that eclipse 70F for much of the CWA
Thursday and Friday. Will need to watch the apparent temperatures
for the end of next week with those higher dewpoints and
temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
An initial round of showers and storms have moved through the
terminals during the early afternoon hours. Some residual MVFR
remains at KCAK and KYNG with some trailing stratiform rain.
Meanwhile, a low cumulus field is developing in Northwest Ohio
with some intermittent MVFR ceilings at KTOL and KFDY. This
field is ahead of the main cold front that may bring another
round of showers and storms to the region this evening into
tonight. Any convection should be isolated to scattered and
sub-severe and have some loose PROB30 mentions this evening for
any redeveloping storms but overall confidence is low for
impacts. Behind this next round of convection, conditions will
trend to dry with improving ceilings. Winds will be light and
generally westerly with some shift to the north for Sunday. Some
fog/mist will be possible where rain occurred this afternoon,
mainly KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southwest flow continues over the eastern half of Lake
Erie this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Elevated waves will
persist through this evening and the Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards Statement can continue through 8 PM. The cold
front will cross the lake tonight and winds will shift to the
north with light onshore flow. This light north wind will
continue through Sunday. A warm front will approach the lake for
Monday and shift winds to the east. This front will cross the
lake for Tuesday and southerly offshore flow will be favored.
Southwest flow will be favored on Wednesday and Thursday with
the lake in the warm sector of a low pressure system. Winds may
increase to 15 to 20 kts during afternoon hours with the best
mixing. Overall, not expecting any marine headlines after
tonight.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas/26
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic