161
FXUS61 KCLE 081119
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
632 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major deviations from the previous forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of showers are expected through Sunday with a
series of fronts moving through the region. Rainfall amounts will be
less than one inch with no flooding impacts expected.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected early next week with frost
chances on Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
An unsettled weather pattern is shaping up for this weekend
with several fronts moving through, bringing intermittent rain
chances. For today, some showers are moving through the area
this morning ahead of a warm front. These will largely fizzle
out as they enter a relatively dry air mass. The warm front will
move through later today and with the isentropic lift behind
the front, some more widespread showers will develop late this
afternoon through tonight. Coverage will be highest in the
southern portion of the forecast area, but most of the area
should see at least a little bit of rain. For Saturday,
expecting a dry start to the day with good mixing in the warm
sector. Temperatures will rise well into the 60s and there
should be some 70s to allow for a brief window of a few nice
hours during the day on Saturday. However, that will likely be
short-lived for most as a shortwave will round the broader upper
trough moving through the region. This will support the first
cold front through the region which will bring some shower
activity across the area and have a mix of high chance to
categorical PoPs. Some scattered shower activity will persist on
Saturday night, although coverage will be much less than
earlier in the day. For Sunday, another lobe of the upper trough
will enter and support a stronger cold front through the
region. This will initiate some more scattered showers before
high pressure enters from the northwest on Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Behind the pair of cold fronts this weekend, temperatures will
return to below normal early next week, feeling more like early-
to-mid April. Low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night
will be in the 30s and 40s. With a dry and clearing air mass,
there will be the potential for frost on Sunday and Monday
nights, mainly where temperatures can get into the low-to-mid
30s. High temperatures will be in the 50s on Monday. Some
locations may try to reach the lower 60s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W`erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and net surface
troughing affect our region through 12Z/Sat. Our regional
surface winds will vary between S`erly and W`erly around 5 to 15
knots. VFR are expected for the time being as variable amounts
of low/mid/upper-level cloudiness accompany the aforementioned
disturbances. Isolated and mainly light rain showers associated
with one of the aforementioned disturbances are expected to
impact Lake Erie, NE OH, NW PA, and vicinity through ~13Z/Fri.

Between ~16Z/Fri and ~06Z/Sat, widespread light to moderate rain
should overspread our region generally from the west, in advance of
the axis of a stronger shortwave disturbance aloft. Widespread
ceilings mainly in the 2kft to 5kft AGL range should accompany this
rain, but occasional IFR ceilings are possible. Visibility should
vary between VFR and MVFR in this rain. Note: isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon into early evening, but confidence in
storms impacting any TAF site is low. The widespread rain should
begin to exit generally E`ward from our region after ~02Z/Sat and
the back edge of this rain should become located near a KJHW to KYNG
to KCMH line by 12Z/Sat. Behind this rain, widespread IFR ceilings
are expected through 12Z/Sat. Weaker surface winds around 5 knots
and lingering low-level moisture from the rainfall should allow
radiation mist or fog to form through 12Z/Sat, especially in
northern OH.

Outlook...Periods of rain with non-VFR are expected this weekend
and during the PM hours of this Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms
are possible this Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Primarily S`erly to W`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected
on Lake Erie through Saturday afternoon as the axes of subtle
troughs advance E`ward across the lake. These winds may flirt with
20 knots at time Saturday afternoon. During Saturday evening
through Saturday night, a cold front should sweep SE`ward across
Lake Erie and cause SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer
toward NW`erly. However, these winds may flirt with 20 knots at
times Saturday evening. Waves should trend 3 feet or less, but
occasional 4 footers are possible Saturday afternoon through
evening. Behind the cold front, a ridge should affect Lake Erie as
the embedded high pressure center moves from the Canadian Prairies
toward Atlantic waters near NC on Sunday through Tuesday. Primarily
NW`erly to N`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots on Sunday through
Monday should become variable in direction Monday night through
Tuesday. Waves should trend 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka