878
FXUS61 KCLE 091105
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
705 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Friday night. An upper level low pressure
system brings rain chances back for Saturday and Sunday. Dry
conditions under high pressure once again for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The track of the Canadian high pressure system from the Great Lakes
today into New England tonight will add complications to the
overnight low temperatures across the CWA, and ultimately the need
for Frost/Freeze products. First, ENE low level/surface flow off the
lake will continue to produce scattered clouds through around 17Z
today, otherwise, sunny conditions expected for most, but a cool day
in store. Dewpoints in the 40s today will fall into the 30s tonight,
but the pressure gradient will begin to increase again as the
surface high distances itself from the southern Great Lakes. 925mb
winds 20-25kts and southeast surface winds 4-6kts over far NE OH and
NW PA will inhibit radiational cooling to a degree, and could keep
temperatures near or above freezing. This pressure gradient will not
be as much of a factor further west in the CWA where sheltered areas
should go calm or nearly calm, and temperatures could drop just a
bit more in these areas. Ultimately, looking at widespread lower to
mid 30s tonight away from the immediate lakeshore areas, and will
need a Frost Advisory for nearly the entire CWA. The prudent thing
to do here is to leave Freeze out for now and let the next set of
guidance come in to determine freeze potential tonight. This may end
up being in the south central portion of the CWA. Warmer on Friday,
back into the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A filling closed upper low and filling surface low will drop into
the southern Great Lakes, and with it a change from the forecast 24
hours ago. Despite the weakening trend of the system, POPs have
increased significantly with more robust QPF for Saturday into
Sunday. Lingering areas of low level f-gen will restrengthen over
the eastern half of the CWA in the Saturday night to Sunday time
frame, and this is where forecast QPF amounts will be in the quarter
to half inch range. Again, this is a change from the last 24 hours
which had far lower POPs and negligible amounts in the QPF. The
closed low will also keep temperatures in the 60s, putting a slight
delay in the overall gradual warming trend, especially on Sunday.
The bulk of the POPs exit to the east Sunday night when the upper
low continues its track southeastward towards the Carolina
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Back to the dry pattern for the extended with upper level ridging
for the area, accompanied by gradual temperature increases for the
region. The warming will be stifled somewhat by lingering northerly
surface flow, however, but temperatures will be near normal for
early October.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through this period as
high pressure remains dominant over the area. Mostly clear
skies will persist with a scattered cu field possible this
afternoon. Light north-northeast winds tonight will increase to
5-10 knots by late morning and persist through the day before
becoming light and variable again this evening throughout the
overnight hours.

Outlook...Mainly VFR and dry weather are expected through this
Monday. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are possible Friday night through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
7:00 AM Update...
The Small Craft Advisory has been canceled across the nearshore
zones of Lake Erie.

Original Discussion...
A Small Craft Advisory remains across the central basin as waves
gradually diminish from the strong winds earlier. This advisory
goes until 12Z this morning and will likely be able to expire
at that point.

High pressure over the area will allow for relatively calm
marine conditions across Lake Erie with winds 10-15 knots from
the northeast today. As the center of the high shifts, winds
will gain a more southerly component by Friday. As a weak cold
front approach from the west Friday night into Saturday,
southwest winds of 15-20 knots are possible through Saturday.
Given the offshore flow and very marginal wind conditions, not
expecting any additional headlines but will need to monitor any
shift in forecast. After the frontal passage which may be
isolated showers across the area, a ridge will build over the
area and allow for sustained winds from the south-southeast at
10-15 knots through the end of the weekend and into next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006-008-
     010-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ014-023-033.
PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002-003.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04