970
FXUS61 KCLE 281913
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With this update, added the potential for patchy dense fog
tonight, especially across the south central portion of the
area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions with gradually increasing temperatures
expected through Thursday.

2) Chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday with the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to influence the weather across
northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through Thursday as a
dominant ridge aloft takes a while to shift. Beginning
Wednesday, this high will begin to slowly shift towards the
Mid-Atlantic Coast, resulting in a southwest flow developing
across the area. This will allow for increased moisture
advection from the Gulf and warmer air pushing north. Highs to
start this week will be in the upper 60s to low 70s but are
expected to gradually increase through the week to be in the
upper 70s to low 80s Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the aforementioned ridge begins to break down and push east
midweek, an upper level trough associated with a surface low
near the Four Corners region will begin to push east towards the
area. The northern portion of this trough will move into the
area late Thursday, ultimately allowing a cold front to sag
south across the area into Friday. Ahead of this system,
increased moisture from a persistent southwest flow will allow
for the strong front to bring widespread rain to the area. Given
the initial onset of showers overnight, not currently expecting
any thunder. However, given a general slowing in the
precipitation onset amongst models, if the main cold front
pushes east on Friday versus Thursday night, the area could see
some thunderstorms activity. This trough should push east late
Friday, allow for a weak high to build across the area Saturday
before another trough brings rain to the area Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Broken mid-level clouds will persist across portions of NE
OH/NW PA through early this evening, but any remaining MVFR
conditions should improve to VFR near or shortly after 00Z. By
late tonight/early Tuesday morning, additional fog and low
stratus will develop across the area. Most terminals will
experience a period of MVFR/IFR conditions, although inland
terminals and possibly KERI could have LIFR visibilities and
ceilings between roughly 09Z and 12Z Tuesday morning. Conditions
will gradually improve Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds will be out of the north at 5 to 10 knots through early
this evening before becoming light and variable through the end
of the TAF period.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non-
VFR possible in scattered showers Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the area will keep fairly calm marine
conditions across Lake Erie through at least Wednesday. Initial
winds for today and Tuesday will mainly be from the north at
5-10 knots allowing for waves along the southern lakeshore to be
2 feet or less. On Wednesday, the aforementioned high will begin
to shift towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast, marking a notable shift
to southwesterly winds with an increase to 10-15 knots on
Wednesday and to 15-20 knots on Thursday. Given the offshore
flow, waves along the southern shore should remain 2 feet or
less. Given the stronger winds, a brief Small Craft Advisory may
be needed on Thursday,

Late Thursday into Friday, a strong cold front is expected to
sag southeast across Lake Erie shifting winds to be more
northerly at 10-15 knots. As the low pushes east, a brief area
of high pressure is expected to build in on Saturday, shifting
winds to be from the northeast to 10-20 knots with waves
building to 3 feet or less. Will have to monitor the trends in
model guidance for any timing adjustments to the cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...04