234
FXUS61 KCLE 171353
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
953 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the area today. Low pressure
will track through the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into
early Thursday dragging a cold front through the area. High
pressure will build in across the region this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

9:52 AM EDT Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and
model guidance. A surface warm front continues to sweep NE`ward
across far-NE OH and is expected to move NE`ward across the rest
of our CWA through this early afternoon. This warm front will
usher-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the
Gulf. Isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms remain possible through this early afternoon along
and behind the warm front due to moist isentropic ascent
releasing weak elevated instability along the upper-reaches of
the front and ahead of shortwave trough axes embedded in
cyclonic SW`erly flow aloft.

Made minor adjustments to POP`s this afternoon through early
evening based on latest trends in obs and model guidance. Still
expect the best potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms during that time frame to be focused across
roughly the southeastern 1/3 of our CWA. This is where surface
trough axes accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough
axes aloft and an expected Lake Erie lake breeze front
extending from far-NE Cuyahoga County through Erie County, PA
are expected to act as foci for surface-based convection
initiation. These lifting mechanisms are expected to release
weak to moderate boundary layer instability stemming from peeks
of sunshine and daytime heating of the warm/moist sector
boundary layer. Localized flash flooding remains a concern,
especially along the lake breeze front, since WSW`erly mean mid-
level flow of only 20 to 30 knots should exhibit a large
component parallel to the mesoscale front and permit training
and slow-moving showers/storms. Periods of heavy rain are
expected as PWAT`s remain unusually-high in/near the warm/moist
sector. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

The near term forecast will bring warmer temperatures, muggy
conditions, and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
today though tomorrow. There are some isolated to scattered
showers this morning south of the Highway 30 corridor closer to
central Ohio. We anticipate the showers to become more scattered
to widespread later this morning into this afternoon. There
will be a few thunderstorms possible especially with the daytime
heating adding some energy in the atmosphere. Precipitable
water values will increase today up to 1.9 inches with the
passage of the warm front. With high moisture content, MLCAPE
values up to 1000 J/KG, weak shear and steering flow is a good
setup for showers and embedded storms to develop throughout the
day today. Some of these showers and storms may be efficient
rainfall producers with localized heavy rainfall possible today
into this evening. Organized strong or severe convection is not
expected today. The highest POPs will be generally from Marion
to Cleveland to Erie line and southeastward. Lower POPs will be
over northwest Ohio around the Toledo area. High temperatures
will range from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees where showers
and storms persist more across northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. The warmest temperatures today will be over NWOH
with low to middle 80s.

Most of the diurnally driven convection will slowly end this
evening after sunset. We will keep some slight to chance POPs
overnight given the moisture rich atmosphere and some weak lift
lingering over the Upper Ohio Valley tonight. Wednesday will be
a little more interesting with the potential of some strong to
severe storms moving in late in the day and evening. A shortwave
trough will track from the Cornbelt region of the Midwest into
the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A surface low pressure
system will develop and strengthen as it tracks through the
central Great Lakes region late Wednesday which will drag a cold
front across the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of this shortwave, there is a weak lead impulse wave in
the 500 mb flow that will track across Ohio around midday
Wednesday. Given the tropical like airmass and diurnal heating,
there could be a round of scattered showers and storms that
quickly move from west to east during the midday or early
afternoon on Wednesday. It does appear that if this lead weather
system kicks through, there will be enough time to quickly
destabilize the atmosphere again late afternoon into the evening
ahead of the approaching cold front. The short term discussion
will have more details about the severe weather potential
Wednesday evening. High temperatures on Wednesday will top out
in the lower to middle 80s areawide with very humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Deepening upper level low pressure will be moving across Lower
Michigan Wednesday night while a surface low drags a cold front
towards the region. Ahead of the cold front MLCAPE values will
range from 1000-1500 J/kg with deep layer shear values near 30
knots. These environmental parameters will support upstream
organized convection ahead of the cold front. This convection is
expected to enter the I-75 corridor Wednesday evening.
Thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and severe hail with a chance for some
embedded tornadoes. Storms will push east across northern Ohio
Wednesday night with the cold front while decreasing in
intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger on Thursday before high
pressure gradually builds overhead Thursday night into Friday. Highs
in the mid to upper 70s behind the cold front will rise into the low
to mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows settle in the lower 60s on
Thursday night with warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large scale ridging builds across the region through the long term
period. Main weather concern will be above normal temperatures
forecasted to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend.
Heat indices may approach 100 degrees Sunday and Monday. Maintained
slight chance PoPs to begin the weekend as a shortwave aloft moves
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main message for aviation weather with this morning`s TAF
update will be mainly VFR conditions outside of scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms today into this early this evening.
There are some scattered showers closer to central Ohio and the
Highway 30 corridor as of 1030z. The expectation for the rest
of this morning through the afternoon is an increase of showers
and a few thunderstorms as a warm front lifts northward across
the area.

TAF updates will be more nowcasting throughout today due to
uncertainty of where the more concentrated showers and or
brief heavier convection will develop and may impact individual
airfields. We expect the most coverage of showers and isolated
heavier convection will be between 15z this morning and 00z this
evening. We have used a broad brush with the TAF for this
morning and afternoon using PROB30 groups for
-SHRA and -TSRA with brief ceilings to MVFR 3000 feet and
 reduction in visibility of 3sm to 5sm due to heavier downpours
 over the airfield. Outside of the scattered to widespread
 convection today, expect mainly VFR ceilings. Areas that see
 rainfall today may have some patchy MVFR fog 5sm along with
 some low stratus that may develop around 1500 feet. A couple
 TAF locations like MFD and YNG may have some low stratus
 ceilings down to IFR possibly after 06z tonight.

Winds will become southerly to south- southwesterly 5 to 10
knots this morning and continue through the end of this TAF
period. We can`t rule out a brief isolated wind gust of 20 to 30
knots with any heavier thunderstorm impacting an airfield.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with scattered to periodic showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. The best chance of
thunderstorms will be Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. There is a small chance of isolated thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon over far northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure moving across the Upper Great Lakes region will
lift a warm front east across the lake this morning.
Southeasterly winds 5- 10 knots will shift southerly this
morning through Wednesday. Another area of low pressure
approaches from the west on on Wednesday. The low moves in the
vicinity of Lake Erie Wednesday night leading to increasing
southwesterly winds of 15-20 knots. Will continue to monitor the
potential for small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements with the mid-week system. The low exits to the east
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and will drag a cold front
with it. Westerly winds will diminish to 10-15 knots through
the day on Thursday with high pressure building over the lake by
the end of the week and into the weekend. Periods of showers
and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13