309
FXUS61 KCLE 111129
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
729 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and associated cold front will move southeast
across the Great Lakes today. This low will open up into a trough
tonight and get absorbed into a low moving up the East Coast. A
ridge will build from the northeast for Sunday and Monday. A cold
front will move through the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some light, pre-frontal shower activity is moving through the area
early this morning with only the radar returns near or over Lake
Erie reaching the surface. The main front remains off to the west
over southeast Michigan and lower Ontario. This front will push east
over Lake Erie today and allow for more rain activity to develop as
the main closed upper low slides southeast over the lake. This will
allow the potential for some convective showers and even some
thunder, which could move into adjacent areas of NE OH and NW PA.
Overall, rainfall amounts will be light with generally less than one
quarter of an inch of rain expected today over land areas. The
surface low pressure system will open up into a trough tonight with
the parent closed upper low drifting off to the east. This should
allow for rain activity to subside tonight with the focus off to the
east. Temperatures today will be status quo for areas away from the
lake with upper 60s into lower 70s. For areas near Lake Erie,
temperatures will remain subdued in the 60s with clouds and rain in
the region. Lows tonight will fall into the 40s as clouds clear to
the east.

For Sunday, the closed upper low will slightly retrograde westward
and may offer some slight upper level support for the surface
trough. Therefore, there could be some isolated to scattered shower
activity over eastern Lake Erie and extending into NE OH and NW PA.
However, with flow across the region being southeasterly to
easterly, there may be some downsloping in the hills of OH/PA to
mitigate rain potential over land and will just have some low PoPs
but the period may just be dry with some clouds, courtesy of the
moisture and lift entering the region from the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday night into Monday, the surface trough will exit east and
the pesky upper low will get absorbed into the larger low pressure
system moving up the East Coast. This will allow a surface ridge to
build from the northeast and enter the local area, allowing for a
dry period with seasonable temperatures. On Tuesday, a cold front
will approach the area from the northwest. Some warmer air will
advect into the region ahead of the front and a large chunk of the
area appears set to reach 70 degrees, perhaps mid to upper 70s in NW
OH where drought persists. The front will cross the area later in
the day on Tuesday and allow for some rain potential Tuesday night,
but the lack of upper level support will make any rain activity
isolated to scattered in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For Wednesday and Thursday, the area will be controlled by cooler,
Canadian high pressure, which will bring temperatures back toward
normal, if not a touch cooler, and allow for some cooler, radiating
nights on Wednesday and Thursday with frost/freeze potential. The
cooler air mass will also need to be tracked for any lake effect
rain, but the overall dry air mass will make that threat rather
limited. The high pressure system will shift east on Friday,
allowing for a warm front and return flow back into the region,
which will allow for another chance for 70s, especially for the
western half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with mainly VFR to
persist through the TAF period. Some MVFR ceilings and rain
showers may accompany a cold front this morning at ERI, though
confidence is low. Otherwise, any lingering sub 5kft bkn/ovc ceilings
should erode to sct by this afternoon.

Winds this morning ahead of the cold front are out of the south
to southwest, around 5 knots. Behind the front, winds will
shift towards the northwest and north and remain generally light
around 5 knots. Winds will then gradually favor a northeast to
perhaps east direction by later this evening and overnight, 5 to
7 knots.

Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions favored through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally speaking for October, mainly quiet marine conditions
are expected into early-next week with no headlines
anticipated. Will need to monitor wind and wave trends late
Sunday into Monday as east to northeast flow of 15 to 20 knots
develops across Lake Erie. At this time, waves in the nearshore
areas are anticipated to be just below 4 feet given that winds
may favor a more easterly direction. The better chance for
marine headlines may be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold
front sweeps through the area, ushering in northerly flow of 15
to 20 knots.

Otherwise, will maintain the chance for waterspouts into Sunday as
a weak area of low pressure lingers across Lake Erie underneath
a relatively cool upper air mass.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn