Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
364
FOPA12 PHFO 300836
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM NOLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 164.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
22N 164W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
22N 164W 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
22N 164W 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
NECKER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NECKER 50 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
NECKER 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 165W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 4 18(22) 14(36) 14(50) 13(63) 1(64) X(64)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 2(43) X(43)
GARDNER PINN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
GARDNER PINN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 25(56) 1(57)
25N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20)
25N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 30(44) 1(45)
MARO REEF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13)
MARO REEF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 14(72)
25N 175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39)
25N 175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38)
LAYSAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
LAYSAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 4(41)
LISIANSKI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
LISIANSKI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
KURE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
KURE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS