960
FOPA12 PHFO 012043
PWSCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2026

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

22N 164W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NECKER         34 12   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

25N 165W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FR FRIG SHOALS 34 63  17(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GARDNER PINN   34  X  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

25N 170W       34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  19(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
25N 170W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARO REEF      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

25N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  53(54)   X(54)   X(54)
25N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
25N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

LAYSAN         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)

LISIANSKI      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE