Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
622
FOPA12 PHFO 280846
PWSCP2
HURRICANE NOLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 160W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 8(40) X(40) 1(41)
NIHOA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
NIHOA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27)
BUOY 51101 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) 66(66) 23(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 36(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37)
NECKER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 38(71) 8(79) 1(80)
NECKER 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 8(40) X(40)
NECKER 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17)
20N 165W 34 X 20(20) 21(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42)
20N 165W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 12(39) 3(42)
25N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
25N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 31(65) 5(70)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 4(32)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 21(53)
GARDNER PINN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
GARDNER PINN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 35(46)
25N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
25N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35)
MARO REEF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
MARO REEF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23)
LAYSAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
LAYSAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH