Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
425
FOPA12 PHFO 251453
PWSCP2
HURRICANE NOLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 155W 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
HILO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
18N 156W 34 51 31(82) 13(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
18N 156W 50 X 24(24) 36(60) 4(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65)
18N 156W 64 X 8( 8) 23(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
SOUTH POINT 34 1 28(29) 20(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
SOUTH POINT 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BUOY 51002 34 X 4( 4) 37(41) 48(89) 6(95) X(95) X(95)
BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 54(63) 14(77) X(77) X(77)
BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 14(57) X(57) X(57)
15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13)
15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 6(43) X(43)
BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13)
BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
BUOY 51101 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BUOY 51101 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 19(63)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 37(50)
NECKER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22)
NECKER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 59(61) 7(68)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 6(40)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30)
25N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
25N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE