Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
137
FOPA12 PHFO 140833
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM LALA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LALA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 150W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 150W 34 31 9(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
20N 151W 34 20 27(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
BUOY 51004 34 18 65(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
BUOY 51004 50 X 37(37) 15(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
BUOY 51004 64 X 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
20N 154W 34 1 22(23) 42(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
20N 154W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
20N 154W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HILO 34 X 8( 8) 52(60) 23(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
HILO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BRADSHAW AAF 34 X 1( 1) 33(34) 42(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78)
BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
18N 156W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 12(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
18N 156W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SOUTH POINT 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 28(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
21N 156W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 32(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47)
21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 48(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34)
KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 40(50) 6(56) X(56) X(56)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 30(61) X(61) X(61)
21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16)
21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) X(32) X(32)
BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 57(60) X(60) X(60)
HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25)
HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 13(63) X(63) X(63)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 12(49) X(49) X(49)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 25(49) X(49) X(49)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 24(48) X(48) X(48)
JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
JOINT BASE PHH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 1(33) X(33)
LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47)
20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) X(39) X(39)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 58(60) X(60) X(60)
21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22)
21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12)
BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 34(48) 1(49)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16)
20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
20N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
25N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
25N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
MARO REEF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARO REEF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS