Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
040
FOPA12 PHFO 130841
PWSCP2
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-C WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) X(32)
20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) X(51) X(51)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31)
18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25)
18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) 1(53) X(53)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 1(55) X(55)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)
KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 7(40) X(40)
21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 33(46) X(46)
HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15)
HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 5(30) X(30)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 5(30) X(30)
JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) X(42)
20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12)
20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24)
NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) X(44)
21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13)
21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14)
BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32)
22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14)
GARDNER PINN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
25N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16)
25N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARO REEF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
LAYSAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN