Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
337 WTPA42 PHFO 291446 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 36 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Nolo is experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear, as its convective organization has continued to degrade this morning. The deep ring of convection has collapsed, and cloud tops have warmed. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from JTWC, HFO, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease, now ranging between 95 and 102 kt. Based on the degrading satellite appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. A scatterometer pass that arrived shortly after the previous advisory was helpful in refining the initial wind radii. The system has slowed down since the previous advisory and has turned more northward, with an estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt. A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is anticipated today. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to decelerate significantly as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn. There continue to be along-track differences among the guidance. The better performing HCCA and Google DeepMind models are slower than the global models and depict a much slower turn and re-acceleration. Towards the end of the forecast period, Nolo is expected to move generally westward across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track forecast has been slowed down and shifted slightly to the left of the previous, trending toward the GDMI and HCCA aids. Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue impacting Nolo for the next 48 hours or so, with dry mid-level air also entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady weakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm during that time. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h while the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures. However, the dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of restrengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing steady weakening in the short term before the system restrengthens back into a hurricane by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.5N 164.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.3N 164.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 22.2N 165.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 22.0N 165.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 22.3N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 22.6N 167.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 23.0N 169.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 175.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly