Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
013 WTPA42 PHFO 301501 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 40 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026 Significant southwesterly wind shear continues to cause rapid weakening of Nolo this morning. The center of circulation is completely exposed with only minimal convection persisting to the northeast of the center. Nolo has also drifted south of due west over the past several hours, and the initial position has been adjusted accordingly. Recent intensity estimates have fallen substantially and range from 35-55 kt. The initial intensity is set at a potentially generous 50 kt for this advisory. Nolo is drifting toward the west-southwest, steered by a building mid-level ridge to the northwest and a strong, positively-tilted trough located to the northeast. Given Nolo`s rapid weakening over the past day or so, the cyclone is forecast to drift slowly toward the west or west-southwest over the next day or so as it becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Beyond 48 h, as Nolo re-intensifies and becomes vertically deeper, a generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected as the ridge builds to the north, and Nolo is expected to cross the International Date Line by day 5. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted to the left from the previous forecast to account for the adjustment in the initial position, which is also closer to the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. Prohibitive southwesterly wind shear and a dry mid-level environment have caused rapid weakening over the past day or so, and similar conditions are expected through the next day. Beyond that time as the strong trough moves away from Nolo, decreasing shear and slightly more favorable upper-level winds should support gradual strengthening through the rest of this week and into this weekend. However, the continued dry mid-level environment could limit the rate of intensification despite warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly beyond 60 h and Nolo is expected to regain hurricane strength around this time. The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.0N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 22.1N 165.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 22.1N 165.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 22.2N 166.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 22.6N 167.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 22.9N 168.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 23.1N 170.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 24.0N 176.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 25.7N 176.6E 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams