248
WTPA42 PHFO 030236
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convective organization has
continued to improve over the past several hours, with deep
convection expanding around a warming eye. The subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO reflect this, ranging from
T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt, with a D-PRINT objective estimate near
80 kt. Given these intensity estimates and the improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or 270/6 kt. Guidance remains in
good agreement through the forecast period and shows this general
motion persisting into the weekend, followed by an increase in
forward speed beginning around 24 h as the ridge builds to the
north. Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date Line into
the western Pacific basin by 48 h. Model spread is remarkably
narrow, which increases forecast confidence in Nolo`s track, and the
new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction.

The persistent westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear that
has been impacting Nolo`s convective structure and ability to
organize over the past several days has weakened significantly
during the past 24 h. The latest estimate from UW-CIMSS is now below
5 kt. Weak shear combined with warmer SSTs along the forecast track
should support a period of significant strengthening, especially
during the next 24-48 h. The statistical guidance reflects this and
depicts an increased potential for rapid intensification during the
next 24 h. The one limiting factor that could temper the rate of
intensification is the surrounding dry mid-level air. Any dry air
intrusions during this period could disrupt the convective
organization in the eyewall and slow the intensification rate. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
shows significant strengthening during the initial 24 h, and remains
above the guidance envelope, lying close to the HCCA and HAFS-A and
-B. A weakening trend is anticipated beginning around 72 h due to a
combination of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 23.4N 168.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 23.4N 170.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 23.5N 173.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 23.9N 177.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 24.6N 179.5E  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 25.2N 176.5E  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 25.9N 164.4E   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 27.4N 156.6E   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs