Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
512 WTPA42 PHFO 300837 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Nolo continues to rapidly weaken under the influence of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level circulation center is now fully exposed, with limited deep convection confined north of the center. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO are 55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 50 to 60 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and decreasing intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt. Nolo has begun its anticipated west-northwestward turn, with an initial motion of 290/5 kt. As a ridge builds north of the cyclone, Nolo is forecast to turn more toward the west overnight and into Wednesday. A temporary westward to west-southwestward motion is possible during the next day or so as the weakening system becomes increasingly influenced by the lower-level steering flow. Thereafter, as Nolo re-strengthens, it is forecast to gain some latitude while continuing generally westward through about day 4, followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5 as it crosses the International Date Line. The track guidance remains in decent agreement, despite some continued along- and cross-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids. Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next day or so, resulting in additional weakening. The shear is forecast to relax thereafter, allowing environmental conditions to become more favorable for re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level environment could limit the rate of intensification despite warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during the next day or so, followed by little change in strength through Thursday before re-strengthening begins. Nolo is forecast to regain hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen somewhat thereafter. The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.4N 164.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 22.6N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 22.7N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 22.6N 165.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 22.8N 166.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 23.1N 167.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 23.4N 168.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 24.1N 174.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 26.1N 178.7E 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs