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WTPA42 PHFO 140251
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026

Lala continues to steadily intensify. While the associated central
convection has changed little over the past several hours, aircraft
data show that the peak 700 mb flight-level winds have increased to
61 kt, and the pressure has dropped to 997 mb, although with a
surface dropsonde wind of 49 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.
The overall track forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. A
strong mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue
to steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several
days. The cyclone`s forward motion is forecast to slow somewhat as
it approaches and begins to interact with the terrain of the Big
Island on Saturday. Some short-term deviations in the track are
also possible during this time due to these terrain interactions.
Lala should then resume a faster west-northwestward motion as it
passes south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the
weekend, and south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Sunday night
into early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous advisory, except for a slight northward adjustment
in the lee of the Big Island, and lies close to the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable
for strengthening during the next couple of days, with the primary
limiting factor being the dry mid-level air that continues to be
entrained into the cyclone`s large circulation. Steady
strengthening is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a
hurricane as it approaches the Big Island on Saturday.  Interaction
with the terrain of the Big Island could result in short-term
changes in the cyclone`s structure and intensity during its closest
approach. Thereafter, an upper-level low is forecast to produce
increasing vertical wind shear with increasing dry air continuing to
entrain into the circulation as Lala passes south of the smaller
islands, which should result in some weakening through the remainder
of the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week as the
cyclone moves away from the Hawaiian Islands and into a more
favorable environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and remains near the middle to upper end of
the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane
Warning is now in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Maui County. Winds are expected to be the
strongest in areas of higher terrain.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to
impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the
remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are
expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed
windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf
may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.

4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of
Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 16.2N 147.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.8N 149.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.6N 151.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.2N 153.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.8N 155.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 19.9N 158.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 20.6N 161.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 21.7N 165.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 22.6N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs