Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
446 WTPA42 PHFO 292037 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Nolo`s satellite appearance continues to degrade this morning as it succumbs to strong vertical wind shear. Drier air has also started to entrain into the inner core of the system, eroding southern portions of the circulation and causing cloud tops to warm. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with the latest Current Intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and UW-CIMSS ranging between 75 and 90 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. Nolo has continued to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/7 kt. A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is expected through tonight. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to decelerate further as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn. There continue to be along-track differences among the track guidance. The better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind (GDMI) models are slower than the global models and depict a much slower turn and subsequent re-acceleration. Toward the end of the forecast period, Nolo is expected to move generally westward across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track forecast has once again been slowed down through 72 h and trends toward the latest HCCA and GDMI aids. The moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue impacting Nolo for the next 36-48 h or so, with dry mid-level air also entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady weakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm during that time. The shear is expected to relax in 48 to 60 h. Although the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures, the dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of re-strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing steady weakening in the short term before the system re-strengthens into a hurricane by the end of the forecast period. This prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.3N 164.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.1N 164.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 22.4N 164.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 22.5N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 22.7N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 23.0N 167.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 23.4N 171.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 24.9N 178.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly