147
WTPA42 PHFO 012044
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo is gradually becoming better organized.  Moderate-to-deep
convection has made a comeback near the center, with a large spiral
band noted in the eastern semicircle.  Additionally, microwave data
indicate that the low-level core of the system remains fairly
intact.  The current intensity is held at 50 kt as the satellite
estimates haven`t quite caught up with the earlier scatterometer
pass.

The storm continues to move slowly to the northwest.  A subtropical
high over the west-central Pacific is forecast to build north of
the cyclone during the next few days.  This evolution is expected
to cause Nolo to turn westward by tomorrow and pick up a lot of
forward speed over the weekend while moving generally west-
northwestward, south of the main atolls of the northwestern
Hawaiian Islands.  Similar to the last advisory, the new forecast
is nudged a bit the north to come into better agreement with the
Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.

After the recent failed extratropical transition, it will take a
bit of time to re-build the warm-core structure aloft, so only a
gradual strengthening is shown for the next 24 h.  However, with
convection near the center already, combined with the forecast drop
in shear and increase in SSTs during the next 2-3 days, these
factors suggest that a significant re-strengthening episode is
coming.  Since the low-level core structure is already present,
rapid intensification is a distinct possibility by the weekend, and
the new forecast is raised from the previous one, showing Nolo as
a major hurricane when it crosses the International Dateline.
Increasing shear could cause some weakening at the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 22.3N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 23.2N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 23.1N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 23.4N 175.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 25.7N 175.0E  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 26.2N 167.9E   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake