152
WTPA42 PHFO 261457
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

The radar and satellite presentation of Nolo has not improved since
the previous advisory. The eyewall has opened up at times on the
north side, and a pronounced dry slot is wrapping around the eastern
side of the circulation. Previous aircraft data indicated the
central pressure was holding steady around 975 mb. For now, the
initial intensity is held at a likely generous 90 kt, in best
agreement with recent UW-CIMSS D-PRINT and SATCON estimates. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently entered Nolo
and will provide some updated, in situ information about the
structure and intensity of the hurricane shortly.

Nolo continues to meander to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge building to the north of
the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Nolo to begin moving
westward later this morning and accelerate westward through the
weekend. Early next week, a mid-level trough currently to the
northwest of Hawaii will dig southward and steer Nolo toward the
northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Then, a
westward turn is anticipated on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge
builds to the north of Nolo. The track models are in good agreement
on keeping the core of Nolo well to the south and southwest of the
main Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. No major changes
were made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to the simple
consensus (TVCN) that has verified well for this event so far.

The hurricane is showing some ill effects of easterly shear and dry
air, and its lack of forward motion could be resulting in some
upwelling of cooler water. But as Nolo starts moving westward, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken, and the SSTs are slightly
warmer along the track. So, strengthening is still anticipated
during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast calls for Nolo
to become a major hurricane in 24 h. The near-term intensity
forecast still lies on the high end of the guidance, favoring the
HAFS-A, Google DeepMind, and HCCA solutions. After 48 h, increasing
southwesterly shear associated with the trough should induce a
weakening trend. This update shows a faster rate of weakening from
60-96 h, following the latest multi-model consensus trends.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
today before turning westward and moving away from the island.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island,
especially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are
possible in those areas today.

2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big
Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant,
life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of
the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser
rainfall totals are expected.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island`s coastline this weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where
gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas
of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and
gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 16.9N 155.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.9N 156.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 16.8N 157.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 16.8N 159.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 19.3N 163.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 21.0N 163.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 23.3N 165.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 23.5N 168.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart