Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
904 WTPA32 PHFO 130248 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Advisory Number 3 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURF TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 143.5W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of the state by early Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 143.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts, but the system still lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and additional strengthening is forecast thereafter. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. WIND: There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track of this system. RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of the Island chain, with maximum totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to reach the east-facing shores of the state on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake