176
WTPA43 PHFO 202039
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

The convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to
show some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level
circulation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite
data.  The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the
subjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt,
respectively.  Based on these estimates, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt.  Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance
will investigate the cyclone tomorrow.

The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt,
and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so
until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is
expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few
days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in
regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is
important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi,
and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island,
should monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is
slightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in
the way of change.

The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for
the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one
hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond
that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will
also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity
forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with
gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a
little lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of
the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and
this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is
expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday
night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian
Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain
and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches
may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or
Friday and residents there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi