266
WTPA44 PHFO 310835
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated
with Lowell has changed little over the past several hours.
Persistent easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the
bulk of the deep convection over and west of the low-level
circulation center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO
and JTWC are 55 kt and 45 kt, respectively, while the latest
objective intensity estimates range from about 40 to 50 kt. A blend
of these estimates supports increasing the initial intensity to 50
kt.

The initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of
the cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the
next couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The
track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60
h. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the
guidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn
west-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential
influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell`s steering
flow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to
upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the
resulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the
guidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a
more northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance
envelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory and remains near the HCCA, Google DeepMind
ensemble mean, and simple consensus (TVCN).

Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and
should temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear
is forecast to decrease during the next 12 to 24 h while the cyclone
remains over warm waters, which should allow Lowell to become better
organized and continue strengthening. A faster rate of
intensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as environmental
conditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the intensity is
forecast to level off around 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is
essentially an update of the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week. Interests in Hawaii
should monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 13.0N 144.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 13.0N 145.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 13.2N 147.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 13.4N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 13.7N 151.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 14.0N 153.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 14.4N 155.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 15.1N 158.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 15.6N 160.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs