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WTPA44 PHFO 080852
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 07 2026

Dangerous Hurricane Lowell is passing near the island of Niihau.
Barking Sands and Lihue Airport on Kauai have reported wind gusts to
hurricane force during the past few hours, and tropical-storm-force
gusts have occurred at several locations on Oahu. The structure of
Lowell continues to be affected by the strong wind shear that an
upper trough is imparting on the system. Aircraft data and WSF-M
passive microwave images show the vortex is tilted toward the north
with height, and Air Force Hurricane Hunter reports indicate the
eyewall remains open. The central pressure has gradually risen
tonight. However, the previous aircraft mission reported 700-mb
flight-level winds up to 106 kt underneath cold cloud tops to the
northwest of Lowell`s center, which is the basis for maintaining the
95-kt intensity. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue
to investigate Lowell through the overnight hours.

The hurricane is moving quickly north-northeastward (020/16 kt). The
core of Lowell will pass near or just west of Niihau during the next
several hours before tracking slightly more northward later on
Tuesday. The mid- to upper-level trough steering the hurricane is
predicted to weaken and lift northward over the next couple of days,
which should allow a mid-level ridge to build in to the north and
northeast of Lowell. In response, Lowell is forecast to turn sharply
northwestward and westward while slowing down through midweek. The
models are in good agreement on this portion of the forecast, and
only small forward speed changes were made to catch up with the
latest multi-model consensus aids. The long-range forecast is
complicated by the potential for another upper trough interaction,
and the details are highly uncertain based on the spread in the
models and ensembles. The NHC forecast shows a general northwestward
motion at 96-120 h, but longer-range confidence is low.

While Lowell`s intensity has changed little during the past 12-24 h,
the strong vertical wind shear has taken a toll on its structure. As
Lowell moves away from the Hawaiian Islands, weakening is expected
due to persistent shear and decreasing SSTs along its track. The NHC
forecast shows Lowell becoming a tropical storm by 36 h and
continuing to weaken through the end of the week, in best agreement
with the simple consensus aid (IVCN). There is a wider range of
possibilities at days 4-5 related to the uncertainties described
above. Although the current forecast shows Lowell remaining a
tropical cyclone, there is a distinct possibility the hostile
conditions could cause it to lose organized convection and become
post tropical even sooner.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Kauai County: The core of Lowell will pass near Niihau and just
west of Kauai overnight. Damaging hurricane conditions will continue
into early Tuesday, with the highest winds atop mountains and on
windward and leeward slopes. Large, damaging waves will continue to
impact exposed portions of the coastline, producing dangerous
coastal flooding and inundation of low-lying areas through early
Tuesday.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will overspread
the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may produce significant
flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and
portions of the Big Island.

3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into
early Tuesday. Strong, damaging wind gusts could cause tree damage
and power outages, especially in areas of higher terrain.

4. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 21.9N 160.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 24.1N 160.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 26.3N 160.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 27.7N 162.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 28.2N 164.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 28.0N 167.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 27.9N 169.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 29.0N 171.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 30.5N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart