435
WTPA44 PHFO 041448
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

There has not been any significant changes with Lowell over the past
several hours. The major hurricane is maintaining an eye in
satellite imagery with an intense ring of deep convection around the
center. The convective pattern is a little asymmetric with the
strongest thunderstorms currently occurring south of the center. The
latest satellite intensity estimates range from 102 to 120 kt, and
based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 110 kt. The
Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lowell
later today, and the information they collect will be very helpful
in assessing the cyclone`s intensity and structure.

Lowell has been losing some latitude this morning, with the initial
motion estimated to be just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A
general westward motion is expected through Saturday as Lowell
remains steered by the flow on the southeastern side of a mid-level
ridge. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change when a
mid- to upper-level low moves southwestward north of the Hawaiian
Islands, eroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern
change should cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast
with a gradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close
to the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It
should be noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns
is challenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of
the mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane`s location.
Although the models agree on the overall setup and all show Lowell
turning, there is a notable amount of spread on how close the core
of Lowell gets to Kauai County. This forecast is quite similar to
the previous one and near a blend of the best-performing aids so far
this season, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and consensus aids
HCCA and TVCN.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive
for strengthening over the next two to three days, and it seems
likely that Lowell will restrengthen back to a category 4 hurricane
during that period. Beyond that time, a notable increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters should cause
steady weakening. However, Lowell is still forecast to be near major
hurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian
Islands. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the
model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be near major hurricane strength when it moves
close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night.
Regardless of the hurricane`s exact track and intensity, there is a
risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of
Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place. Watches are likely to be issued for a
portion of the state on Saturday.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 13.3N 160.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi