539
WTPA44 PHFO 302040
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Lowell`s outflow to the east is starting to improve, a sign that the
persistent easterly shear might be decreasing. However, this has not
yet resulted in a noticeable increase in the convective
organization, as the center is still located just under the eastern
side of a triangular-shaped convective mass.  A just-received
ASCAT-C overpass shows wind vectors of 42 kt in the northwest
quadrant. Based on this and the various satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level
ridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued
generally westward motion. After that, there remains significant
cross-track spread in the guidance. Some of this may be due to the
possible influence of Hurricane Karina on Lowell`s steering. The two
cyclones are likely to stay far enough apart that direct interaction
is unlikely. However, the Canadian model forecast still suggests the
possibility of Karina affecting Lowell`s motion.  Another cause for
the spread may be the models` differences in the forecast of a mid-
to upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  The GFS
forecasts the trough develop farther south and create a weakness in
the subtropical ridge with Lowell moving farther north, while the
ECMWF keeps the trough farther to the north with less weakening of
the ridge and Lowell staying farther south. Currently, it is
difficult to tell which of these scenarios will become reality. The
new forecast track lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and
is similar to the previous track.

The intensity guidance is unchanged since the last advisory, and
indeed it hasn`t changed much for the past two days.  Lowell should
start intensifying in the next 12-24 h, with a faster rate of
strengthening between 24-72 h as conditions become more favorable.
The guidance suggests the intensity should level off around 96-120
h, and the forecast follows this. The new intensity forecast is an
update of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 13.3N 141.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 13.3N 145.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 13.5N 147.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 13.7N 149.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 13.9N 150.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 14.1N 152.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 14.8N 155.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 15.6N 158.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven