104
WTPA44 PHFO 010232
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

Lowell appears to be showing signs of becoming better organized this
afternoon. A renewed burst of deep convection has developed and is
expanding over the low-level circulation center, coincident with a
gradual decrease in the easterly vertical wind shear that has been
affecting the cyclone during the past couple of days. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO range from 45 to 65 kt,
while objective estimates are generally between 45 and 55 kt. Given
the recent increase in convective organization and the decrease in
shear, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the
primary steering influence during the next several days, resulting
in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track
guidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell
continuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period.
By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain
some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and
remains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for
significant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although
some easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to
decrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent
increase in convection near the center could be an indication that
the cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions.
The intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening,
with several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major
hurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity
forecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h
and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Little change in intensity is
forecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally favorable
environment through day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to
west-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 13.0N 147.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 13.4N 150.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.7N 152.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 154.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 14.2N 156.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 14.5N 158.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 15.0N 161.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 15.3N 163.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs