049
WTPA44 PHFO 060235
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell remains an impressive and well-organized major hurricane this
afternoon, although satellite imagery suggests that some weakening
has occurred during the past several hours. The eye remains well
defined and is surrounded by a largely symmetric eyewall, but
visible and infrared imagery show some erosion of the convection
within the northeastern portion of the eyewall, where cloud-top
temperatures have warmed. This could be the result of some mid-level
dry air becoming entrained into the inner core. Although an eyewall
replacement cycle cannot be ruled out, there are still no recent
microwave data to indicate that a secondary eyewall has formed.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are
both 6.0, corresponding to 115 kt, while objective intensity
estimates range from about 105 to 125 kt. Based on a blend of these
data and the modest degradation of the satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. A NOAA
G-IV aircraft is currently sampling the environment surrounding
Lowell, and these data should be incorporated into upcoming model
cycles.

Lowell has continued to slowly gain latitude, with an initial motion
of 300/4 kt. A cutoff upper-level low north-northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move southwestward during the next
couple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced by this
feature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and then
north-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday. The
track guidance remains in good agreement and continues to show the
center of Lowell passing west of Kauai County late Monday into early
Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory and brings the center of Lowell about 150 to
175 n mi west of Niihau around the time of closest approach. After
passing the main Hawaiian Islands, Lowell is forecast to turn
west-northwestward and slow as weak ridging builds to the north of
the cyclone.

Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible through early Sunday
due to internal structural changes. However, the overall trend is
expected to be toward gradual weakening. Deep-layer vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase substantially beginning Sunday as
Lowell turns northward and accelerates toward the vicinity of the
western main Hawaiian Islands. Increasingly dry mid-level air should
also become entrained into the circulation during this time. These
increasingly hostile environmental conditions should cause the rate
of weakening to increase Sunday night and Monday. Despite the
expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a major hurricane
when it makes its closest approach to Kauai County and passes across
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
Thereafter, a combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier
air should result in continued weakening. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued
for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas late Monday into Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 13.7N 163.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.4N 163.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 164.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 17.2N 163.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 19.7N 162.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 22.7N 162.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 162.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 26.8N 164.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 27.3N 168.6W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs