410
WTPA44 PHFO 040856
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

Satellite images show that Lowell`s eye has become less distinct
during the past several hours, though very deep convection is
ongoing in the eyewall.  The infrared presentation also suggests
that Lowell has a double eyewall structure, which is confirmed by
overnight microwave data.  The initial intensity is reduced to 110
kt on this advisory, reflective of a small decrease in the overall
Dvorak values and overall organization of the cloud pattern.

Lowell still has plenty of time for re-strengthening since it will
remain in a low-shear, warm-water environment for the next few
days.  It should be noted that the wind shear has been higher
than expected, especially in the mid-levels, which is possibly
causing the sharp edge currently observed in the deep convection
in the eastern eyewall.  However, this shear should abate by the
weekend, and there is a long window of generally favorable
conditions for the current eyewall replacement cycle to complete.
Thus, the new NHC forecast continues to show some
re-intensification, similar to the previous advisory and the
guidance mean.  Around 72 h, Lowell is expected to encounter
increasing southwesterly shear that should cause weakening sometime
early next week. However, it is still forecast to be at major
hurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian
Islands.

There is no change to the initial motion of Lowell of 270/8 kt.
The hurricane should gradually slow down during the next day or so
due to a deepening mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian
Islands, which should cause a weaker subtropical ridge.  By late
this weekend, the trough is forecast to break down the ridge,
causing Lowell to move faster to the north or north-northeast late
Sunday into Monday.  This track would bring the center of Lowell
near or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late
Monday into early Tuesday.  The guidance envelope has made a
westward shift on this advisory, seemingly due to a delayed
northward turn.  The new NHC track forecast is nudged westward in
line with the latest consensus and Google DeepMind guidance, but it
should be noted that the long-range track details are still of
lower confidence.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 13.4N 159.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 13.4N 160.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 13.5N 161.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 13.7N 163.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 14.3N 163.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 15.2N 164.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 16.6N 163.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 21.2N 162.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 26.3N 162.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake