Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
085 WTPA44 PHFO 010832 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 19 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026 Lowell`s satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours. A large area of deep convection continues to expand over the low-level circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures of -80 C or colder within the developing central dense overcast. Although some easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect the cyclone, the shear has decreased considerably from what was observed over the weekend. The latest subjective Dvorak and objective intensity estimates have changed little this evening. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. The initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the primary steering influence during the next several days, resulting in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell continuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and remains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus (HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for significant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although some easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to decrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent increase in convection near the center could be an indication that the cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions. The intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening, with several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major hurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity forecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h and a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Little change in intensity is forecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally favorable environment through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.1N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.3N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.5N 151.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.7N 153.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 14.3N 157.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.6N 159.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 14.8N 161.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 15.2N 164.3W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs