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WTPA44 PHFO 070244
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Before departing Lowell, the final fix from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission found the hurricane was mostly steady
state, with peak flight level winds of 109 kt and a minimum pressure
still at 948 mb. While a closed 30 n mi wide eye remains, there was
evidence of a secondary wind maximum beginning to form on the recon
flight, and a secondary convective ring can also be seen from a
recent AMSR3 microwave image, suggesting another eyewall replacement
cycle may soon be underway. While the aircraft flight level winds
support a maximum sustained wind of around 100 kt, the eastern side
of Lowell was not fully sampled where the highest winds might be
present given the current motion. This assessment, combined with
higher satellite intensity estimates suggests maintaining the
intensity at 105 kt this advisory.

Lowell is now moving a little east of due north this afternoon,
estimated at 010 degrees at 8 kt. The synoptic situation continues
to evolve as a cutoff mid- to upper-level low sliding west-southwest
is beginning to capture Lowell, as mid-level ridging to the
hurricane`s southeast should generally impart a northward to
north-northeastward motion over it for the next 24-48 h as Lowell
gradually accelerates. Like this afternoon, there has been another
eastward shift in the guidance, with the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids along with the HAFS
hurricane-regional models on the eastern side of the guidance
envelope. Thus, the NHC official forecast has been shifted a little
more eastward in response to these model trends. After 48 h, the
cutoff low influencing Lowell`s motion is forecast to lift out, with
a mid-level ridge building back in to the north, which should result
in the cyclone turning back to the northwest or even west in the
latter half of the forecast period.

While vertical wind shear over Lowell is currently low, it is soon
forecast to increase out of the southwest to above 30 kt in 24 h.
This shear, combined with the likelihood that Lowell may soon
undergo another eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to
weakening, first slowly, and then a faster rate in the 24-48 h time
frame. This solution is reflected in the latest NHC intensity
forecast, which shows slow weakening tonight, but a faster rate of
weakening by Monday night into Tuesday when the shear is expected to
be 30-40 kt over the hurricane. Regardless, Lowell is still forecast
to be a hurricane when it makes it closest point of approach to the
Hawaii Islands on Monday night. After passing by, Lowell should
continue to weaken below hurricane intensity, and there remain some
possibility of the storm becoming post-tropical by the end of the
forecast period, though significant uncertainty remain in the model
guidance by the 120 h period.

Given the eastward shift in the track guidance and with the
expectation that Lowell`s radii will also be larger on its eastern
semicircle, the risk of hurricane conditions for Kauai and Niihau
has increased, and a Hurricane Watch has now been issued for this
portion of the Hawaiian Islands.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell`s center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and
Niihau, where hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue
through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force are also
possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will
increase in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue
through Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and
mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 15.9N 163.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.2N 163.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 19.7N 162.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 22.6N 161.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 25.3N 161.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 27.0N 162.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 27.8N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 27.8N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 28.0N 170.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin