Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
775 WTPA34 PHFO 061448 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 163.8W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the progress of Lowell. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 163.8 West. Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, bringing the center of Lowell across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night. Lowell is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest and slow down by Tuesday night after passing the Hawaiian Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible through this afternoon, followed by gradual weakening beginning tonight. Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauai County by Monday afternoon or evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 14 inches possible. For the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals of 12 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Kauai County...1-3 ft Oahu...Up to 1 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge. SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg