741
WTPA45 PHFO 060231
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026


Southerly vertical wind shear, dry air, and cool waters are taking a
toll on Karina. The low-level center is completely exposed, and
deep convection is limited to some bands on the north side of the
circulation. Accordingly, the satellite intensity estimates are
dropping and currently range from 35 to about 60 kt. The initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt, and that could be a little generous.

Continued weakening is expected as the hostile environmental
conditions are not expected to abate. These factors should cause
steady weakening, and dissipation within a few days. The GFS and
ECMWF simulated satellite images show all of the deep convection
dissipating late Sunday or early Monday. The intensity forecast is a
touch lower than the previous one, and post-tropical transition has
been moved up to 36 h based on the model guidance.

The storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest at about 5 kt. A
continued west to west-northwest motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days as the storm
moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The track
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is based on a blend of
the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, and the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 22.0N 143.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.4N 144.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 22.8N 145.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 23.0N 147.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  08/0000Z 23.3N 149.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z 23.7N 152.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi