Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
480 FXUS64 KCRP 151749 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Moderate to Major Heat Risk through mid-week. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east, this afternoon. - Rain Chances increase later this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 A mid-level high pressure system will dominate to our east and west with surface ridging over the Gulf, keeping the region under a blocking pattern through the period. As ridging builds, we`ll see a few disturbances skirt the eastern periphery of the ridge, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across South Texas during the latter half of the week. Moisture levels will be sufficient to support isolated showers and storms with a low to moderate (20-40%) chance, especially over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend during the first portion of the work week. By Thursday, a potential pattern shift may bring increased rain chances, to more of a moderate chance ~(30- 60%), especially if a tropical moisture plume moves into the western Gulf. Resulting in PWAT`s approaching or exceeding 2.0". While the heaviest rain may stay south of the region, this could still lead to scattered showers and storms along the coast through the end of the week. Rain chances taper to around 20-30% next Sunday as we start out a new week. Afternoon temperatures for the first half of this week range from 90 to 105, then starting Thursday cools to the 85-95 degree range through the end of the period. Overnight lows throughout the period will range in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees across the region. No major weather hazards are expected this week. Thunderstorms should remain in the general category. A generally moderate heat- related risk will persist early this week, with localized areas of major heat risk out west, and heat indices maxing out between 105- 109 degrees through Wednesday before dipping closer to 100 degrees later in the week. Heat advisories aren`t currently anticipated but can`t be ruled out through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 VFR conditions expected to persist through late tonight accompanied by southeasterly winds gusting to around 20-25 knots. After midnight, generally MVFR conditions expected across eastern terminals. VFR conditions to return by early afternoon Monday, across the region with gusty/southerly winds up to around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will persist today. Slowly increasing to a Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Tuesday night then becoming predominately Moderate mid-week through the weekend. Daily rain chances remain mostly low (20-30%) early this week. Increasing up to around 60-75% chance for Thursday then becoming more moderate, closer to (45-55%) heading into the following week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 93 78 94 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 0 10 Laredo 79 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 97 75 98 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 80 90 81 90 / 10 20 0 10 Cotulla 79 101 78 103 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 77 95 76 97 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 89 81 90 / 10 20 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...BF/80