Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
832 FXUS64 KCRP 311117 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts today. - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Hot conditions continue across South Texas today. Highs will reach the upper 90s in the Coastal Bend to the low 100s across the Coastal Plains and westward. Heat indices will climb into the 105-112 degF range. The most significant impacts are once again expected across the Brush Country, where a Moderate to Major (level 2-3 of 4) heat risk is forecast, and an isolated Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk cannot be ruled out in parts of La Salle and McMullen counties. Elsewhere a Minor to Moderate (level 1-2 of 4) will extend into the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and the Crossroads. With many of you likely spending time outdoors this Labor Day weekend, practicing heat safety will be critical. Please remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and avoid prolonged direct sun exposure. Additional safety tips are available at weather.gov/heat . Later today, we`ll begin to see a shift to a bit more of an active pattern. The ridge axis we have been watching the last several days is expected to shift westward, allowing weak shortwave disturbances to ride down its eastern periphery. Along with the pooling of moisture (PWATs greater than 2 inches) ahead of a stationary boundary currently to our north, this setup will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms in the coming days. Chances for measurable rain (20-50%) begin today across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains. CAMs are split regarding the evolution of rainfall over portions of the northern Brush Country late tonight as they are hung up on the advancement of available moisture this far south and west. I increased NBM PoPs over this area to account for at least a low chance (20-30%). The day-shift can edit as necessary once the most recent model data comes in closer to time and confidence increases in the progression of precipitation. Broader low to moderately high probabilities (30-70%) will expand region-wide Monday into Tuesday when the atmospheric set-up looks to be the best. Given the amount of moisture we have in place, some storms may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. WPC continues to highlight northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall from 12Z today through 12Z Monday, with an isolated Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the Victoria Crossroads. They continue to also paint most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk from 12Z Monday until 12Z Tuesday. Rain chances begin to taper off by late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the aforementioned boundary gradually pushes through, with drier conditions expected mid-to-late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Isolated showers are developing northeast of VCT terminal early this morning. Have added VCSH wording in the TAF for this morning. Chances increase this afternoon and have maintained Prob30 for this site. Low chance of convection at CRP today - too low to include in TAF at this time. Some guidance suggest convection approaching COT this evening and have indicated this in TAF. Generally expect VFR conditions outside of in the vicinity of showers and storms. Light to moderate southeast winds are expected. Rain chances increase tomorrow, and have added the mention to the end of the forecast period at VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through most of the upcoming week. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-70%) late today through early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as a boundary moves south through the waters. The boundary passage will shift winds to the north and bring in drier air. Onshore flow will return by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 77 91 75 / 20 30 70 50 Victoria 95 74 90 72 / 50 50 70 30 Laredo 104 78 98 75 / 10 20 60 60 Alice 99 75 93 74 / 20 20 70 50 Rockport 93 77 90 77 / 30 40 70 50 Cotulla 101 77 93 75 / 20 30 70 40 Kingsville 97 76 93 74 / 20 20 70 50 Navy Corpus 91 81 89 80 / 20 40 60 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...PH/83