Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
762 FXUS64 KCRP 261119 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 - Above-normal temperatures continue through early next week. - Attention turns to an potential "cold" front towards the middle and latter half of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and widespread low to moderate rain chances. - Minor coastal flooding possible starting early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Mid-level ridging will remain the dominant feature across South Texas through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining generally hot and mostly dry conditions. While an isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, most locations should remain dry through Monday. Attention then turns to the evolving mid-level pattern beginning Tuesday and especially Wednesday through the latter half of the week. Global guidance continues to disagree on the evolution and placement of a mid-level low as it interacts with a mid-level ridge anchored across the southeastern U.S. Despite these differences, the overall trend suggests the low will ride northward around the western and northern periphery of the ridge. This would keep the stronger forcing and much of the associated PVA north of South Texas. Even with the better mid-level forcing displaced to the north, increasing moisture and sufficient instability should support a gradual increase in convective coverage beginning Tuesday. Low to moderate rain chances Tuesday become more widespread Wednesday as moisture deepens across the region/ Moderate chances for showers and thunderstorms are the expected Thursday through Saturday. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and the mid-level low and ridge interaction, and relatively small changes in the track of the low could affect the amount of forcing that reaches South Texas. Therefore, confidence remains low that the cold front will make it this far south. Subsequent model runs should help refine the details. Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week. Increasing cloud cover and convective coverage during the latter half of the week may provide some moderation to daytime temperatures, though warm and humid conditions will persist. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s drop to mid-80s to 90s next weekend. Overnight lows in the low to upper 70s is expected to drop a few degrees as well. A moderate to major heat risk continues through this weekend into next Wednesday so please continue to practice heat safety. The potential for minor coastal flooding will begin to increase Sunday evening and may persist through at least the middle of next week. P-ETSS guidance indicates water levels approaching the dunes around times of high tide beginning Sunday evening, followed by a gradual upward trend through at least Wednesday. Astronomical tides will also be elevated following the full moon Saturday evening. There remain some limiting factors that lower confidence in the extent of any coastal flooding. Swell periods are currently expected to remain relatively short at less the 7 seconds, while variable winds may remain too weak to provide a substantial additional onshore push. Nevertheless, given the combination of elevated astronomical tides and the upward trend in the forecast water levels, minor coastal flooding will be possible around the times of high tide beginning Sunday evening. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 While not expected with the previous TAF forecast, fog ended up developing across VCT as well. MVFR visibilities will still be possible for ALI and VCT for the next couple of hours as well as MVFR ceilings in COT. Other than that, VFR conditions can be expected with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Generally, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist throughout the first half of next week, with seas between 2-4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day, with rain chances increasing by the middle of next week as deeper moisture moves into the region. Winds may become more onshore and seas could increase somewhat ahead of an approaching cold front, though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and southward progression of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% across the western portions of South Texas, while east to southeast winds 10-15 mph may increase to 20 mph or higher around mid-week in response to an approaching disturbance. However, RH should be elevated at that time and ERC values are expected to remain near the 50th to 65th percentile with normal fuel dryness. Moisture will begin to increase Tuesday as deeper Gulf moisture spreads into South Texas. Increasing RH and gradually increasing rain chances starting Tuesday through the end of the week should further limit fire weather concerns, with moderate rain chances expected across much of the region by Thursday through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 98 71 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 100 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 77 92 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 81 / 0 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...JCP/84