Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
642 FXUS64 KCRP 021124 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 - Flash flood watch remains in effect for most of the area through 7pm today. Pockets of flash flooding remain possible within heavier showers/storms, especially where heavy rain fell on Thursday. - Moderate to high rain chances continue through the weekend. - Additional rainfall amounts generally 1-3" with locally higher totals possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Thursday played out fairly close to expectations for most of the area. with the main set-up through the middle of the forecast area much of the afternoon and eventually pushing toward the coast. Widespread rainfall totals over an inch occurred from Hebbronville to Pleasanton and eastward with isolated totals over 4 inches. Convection continues along the coast at the time of writing, but we`re also watching more moving out of Deep South Texas that will affect inland areas later in the night. This is aligning well with mid-level vorticity stretched out from the coast and more diffuse but spread out over areas to the south. As the mid-level low gets stretched tonight and tomorrow expect a general north and west progression in the highest rainfall chances, though with moisture continuing to push in from the Gulf we will not end rain chances east either. In fact, eventually, a convergence boundary will set up along the coast and maintain rain chances well into next week, but more on that shortly. With more diffuse forcing, while we`ll keep the rain chances, the strength of the convection should not be what we saw today. PWAT values do remain elevated though so heavy downpours can still be expected. Those PWAT values, by the way, hit 2.5 on the evening sounding, which crushes the old (anomalously low) record for the day of 2.09. This may have been slightly contaminated by nearby showers at launch time, but is reasonable to forecast values, so probably isn`t too far off. Moisture remains elevated into next week despite a weak cold front that should sink into the area on Saturday. Instead of drying us out, this could set up an isentropic lift pattern (it`s been a while) that will just help keep those rain chances in place especially along the coast. Bottom line, don`t expect to see much of the sun for the next week, and generally light rainfall daily through at least Tuesday. But on the bright side, high temps remain at or slightly below normal through mid-week as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue through the afternoon. Any terminal under SHRA/TSRA will continue with these degradations in flight categories, while non-precipitating terminals briefly may lift to VFR through 06Z, with most terminals seeing shower activity dissipating by the end of the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Moderate to fresh onshore flow will continue through Friday, then weaken and shift out of the northeast Friday night into early Saturday morning behind a cold front. Northeasterly flow will strengthen to moderate to fresh Sunday and continue into the middle of next week. Rain chances increase tonight over the waters, then becoming medium to high Friday through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through the weekend with lower chances continuing into next week. RH values will remain elevated each day with cooler temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 75 88 75 / 70 60 80 80 Victoria 89 71 90 70 / 60 30 70 70 Laredo 83 72 86 71 / 70 90 60 60 Alice 87 71 88 71 / 70 50 60 80 Rockport 88 76 86 74 / 70 70 80 80 Cotulla 83 71 85 71 / 70 70 60 30 Kingsville 88 73 88 72 / 70 60 70 80 Navy Corpus 86 79 87 77 / 70 80 80 90 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ229>234-239>244. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...AE/82