Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
714 FXUS64 KCRP 292318 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the weekend and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances for rain are Sunday and Monday. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 There are only a few minor changes to the forecast for this weekend through next week. Heat impacts will remain the greatest concern for this holiday weekend with heat index values approaching 110 for a large portion of South Texas Saturday and Sunday. Please use caution when spending time outside this weekend: take breaks in the shade, drink plenty of water, and spend time in the air conditioning as often as possible. By late this weekend, the ridge axis will move to the west. A few mid-level shortwaves will ride along the eastern periphery of the high which, when combined with a stationary front over Texas and sufficient moisture (PWAT 2 inches or more) will lead to an increased chance for convection. Currently have low to medium (20-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms across South Texas Sunday into Monday. A few storms could produce high rainfall rates leading to a localized risk of flash flooding--mainly in low-lying and/or poor drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall Sunday through Tuesday morning. Rain chances will diminish by mid-week as the boundary finally begins to work its way south bringing drier air with it. Just a quick note on the forecast rain: Have continued our forecast as it has been, though I did lower PoPs just a hair as I have concerns that the bulk of the moisture could remain to the north of the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Have not included any mention of reduced VSBYs or CIGs, though we could see some MVFR conditions in the pre-dawn/early morning hours, particularly for ALI and VCT. South-southeasterly 10-15 knot winds, with gusts to around 20 knots, will diminish to become light and variable overnight tonight increasing once again by Saturday afternoon. A low chance of showers and storms across the Victoria Crossroads tomorrow afternoon prompted the inclusion of a PROB30 group for -TSRA from 18Z to 24Z at VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through the weekend. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-60%) Sunday through Monday night. Chances will diminish Tuesday as a boundary moves south through the waters, shifting winds to the north and bringing in drier air. Winds will return to onshore flow by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 20 Victoria 76 97 75 94 / 10 20 20 60 Laredo 78 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 80 93 80 93 / 0 10 10 30 Cotulla 78 103 77 101 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...KRS/98