308
FXUS64 KCRP 160731
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
231 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High temperatures will continue to range from the low 90s along
the coast to near 105 across the Brush Country today and Monday.
Today, moisture will still remain limited leading to only isolated
locations reaching heat index values of 110. A slow influx of deep
tropical moisture will begin this afternoon and into Monday. This
will lead to increase heat index values and could result in Heat
Advisories Monday afternoon.

There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the coastal waters today, increasing to low to moderate (20-70%)
chances over the waters and along the coast tonight and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

- National Hurricane Center has given an area of disturbed weather
  in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico a medium, 60%, chance of
  tropical cyclone development.

- Increasing moisture will lead to a high (up to 90% chance) of
  showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week.

- Increasing wave heights and long period swell will lead to a
  higher risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding.

Deep tropical moisture will stream into the area from an area of
disturbed weather in the southern Gulf beginning early this week.
PWATs will soar to around 2.9" by Wednesday. A tropical wave will
combine with this moisture and lead to periods of heavy rain this
week, with the heaviest and most widespread rainfall expected
Wednesday and Thursday. The timing of the tropical wave could
shift a bit, leading to some uncertainty in the rainfall timing
and amounts.

Current QPF forecasts have increased from previous forecasts, with
rainfall totals of 3-5 inches across the Brush Country leading to
a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Higher rainfall totals of 5-8 inches across and east of
the Coastal Plains, leading to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding will be possible Wednesday through Thursday (though, once
again, timing could waiver a bit depending on the progression of
the tropical wave).

Increase swell and higher wave heights will lead to an increased
risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding next week. Should
a tropical system develop over the southwest Gulf of Mexico,
chances will increase.

We will continue to monitor this disturbance and its possible
effects on South Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Winds
will remain around 10 knots through the night before strengthening
through the afternoon hours Sunday. Similar to last night, there
will be brief window closer to sunrise where we can see MVFR
vis/cigs develop at ALI and COT. There is a low chance for some
isolated showers at CRP Sunday morning but confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAF at this time. Gusty southeasterly
winds will weaken shortly after 00Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will increase to moderate to strong
Monday into Tuesday. Winds will become strong by the middle of the
week with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. Wave heights
will increase to 8-12 feet across the offshore waters this week
due to a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium,
60% chance of development in the next 7 days. Regardless of
tropical development, deep moisture will move into the area
resulting in a 50-90% chance of showers and thunderstorms by the
middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  79  93  79 /  10  20  50  30
Victoria          95  76  94  77 /  20  10  60  20
Laredo           103  78 103  78 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             98  76  97  76 /  10  10  40  10
Rockport          94  82  93  81 /  20  40  60  40
Cotulla          103  78 102  78 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        97  78  96  78 /  10  20  40  20
Navy Corpus       93  83  92  82 /  10  40  60  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....LS/77
AVIATION...TC