Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
713 FXUS64 KCRP 311734 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and continuing into Tuesday. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. A Marginal Risk continues through Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As expected, we are starting to see showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads and along the coast. Our most recent sounding (08/31 at 00Z) showed PWAT values at 1.73 and current satellite estimates are around 2.0-2.2" in these areas, with drier air over the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. There is still some question as to how far southwest the moisture will reach, but mesoscale models hint at some convection reaching as far west as Cotulla late tonight then continuing further south into portions of Webb County. Therefore, we still have 20-50% chance of PoPs across and west of the Brush Country, with a 40-70% chance over and east of the Coastal Plains tonight through Monday. WPC has included the Victoria Crossroads in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for today and tonight. They then highlight a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Monday and Monday night for the entire area. Localized flash flooding is possible in low-lying and poor drainage areas--especially in storms with high rainfall rates. As the boundary moves through the area Tuesday, rain chances will diminish and the main threat across the area returns, once again, to the heat. Temperatures will be "cooler" with precipitation and cloud cover Monday and Tuesday, leading to highs "only" in the 90s. By Wednesday, those will creep back up into the mid-90s along the coast to low 100s out west. South Texas summer is not really over, so continue to practice heat safety. Remember that heat stroke is an emergency. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Convection has already developed over VCT and is expected to continue, off and on, through tonight as it spreads to the south. Primarily, VFR conditions with MVFR to IFR conditions in and around any showers and thunderstorms. Winds will shift east then to the northeast/north tonight through Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeast to east winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) northeast and north winds tonight through Tuesday. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 75 92 / 30 70 50 40 Victoria 74 90 72 94 / 50 70 30 20 Laredo 78 98 75 94 / 20 60 60 40 Alice 75 93 74 95 / 20 70 50 40 Rockport 77 90 77 92 / 40 70 50 30 Cotulla 77 93 75 96 / 30 70 40 20 Kingsville 76 93 74 92 / 20 70 50 40 Navy Corpus 81 89 80 89 / 40 60 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...LS/77