Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
747 FXUS64 KCRP 021106 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 606 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 539 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Daily moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. - Low to moderate rain chances today and continue into early next week mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 For today through tonight, a surface boundary will be draped across the eastern portions of the state, combined with some mid-level PVA, this combination in proximity to our region will result in increased chances for showers/thunderstorms primarily across the Victoria Crossroads. PWAT values according to the GEFS mean of around 2.0 inches while other members including the GFS suggest values approaching 2.25 inches. Regardless, with normal to above normal moisture, have up to a moderate (30-50%) chance of precipitation over the Victoria Crossroads, with around 15-20% over the northern Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country. With forecast soundings hinting at a skinny CAPE profile due to the increased moisture, any convection that develops could produce brief periods of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has highlighted portions of the northern Brush Country to the northeastern Coastal Plains and northern Coastal Bend in a Marginal Risk (at least 5% chance) for Excessive Rainfall. Generally, area-wide rainfall totals remain (<0.10") with isolated amounts up to around 0.50". Through early next week, have bumped up PoPs to 25-40% around the Victoria Crossroads as an additional wave of PVA is progged to approach and move across portions of the region from the north. Around mid-week onward an expanding mid-level high anchored over the Desert Southwest will promote drier conditions. Above normal temperatures will prevail each day with daily highs ranging around 90-105 through Monday then backing off to 90-100 for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows remain pretty consistent around the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values today into early next week are expected to top 110 degrees over the Coastal Bend and isolated portions of the Brush Country. A Heat Advisory may be needed today for the Coastal Bend but decided to hold off for now as conditions look to be borderline and too isolated at this point in time. Heat advisories may be necessary for the beginning of next week also. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. There is a low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads late this afternoon, so have a PROB30 at VCT for -TSRA and MVFR visibility from 20Z-02Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Onshore flow remains gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through the weekend and into early next week. There is a low (10-15%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over most of the waters today increasing to (25-40%) Sunday through the first half of the week, mainly over the northern waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 98 77 98 77 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 99 75 98 76 / 40 30 30 10 Laredo 105 80 106 79 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 102 75 102 75 / 10 10 10 0 Rockport 93 80 93 80 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 104 80 105 79 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 100 75 100 75 / 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 80 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...LS/77