Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
334 FXUS64 KCRP 162352 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 652 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 - Rain chances Thursday could limit heat-related impacts - Low (15-30%) rain chances this afternoon, then increasing to a medium to high (30-65%) chance tonight and Thursday. - Minor coastal flooding remains a concern && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 Fortunately for us, heat advisories look like they may be on a hiatus for the next few days. While moisture increases for Thursday, cloud cover and the potential for rain should limit temperatures and, thus, heat-related impacts. PWAT values will increase to near 2.2" for Thursday, which could lead to some areas of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, particularly if the storms are slow-movers. Increased moisture and a low potential for rain will continue through Friday afternoon. Rain chances will drop to 5-20% by this weekend and into early next, with rain chances mainly along the seabreeze. Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle, however, confidence is not high on that. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible at ALI and VCT between 08-12z and then becoming more widespread throughout the morning as rain chances increase. The eastern sites could see a thunderstorm or two before 18z. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF3-4) breeze is expected, with occasional periods of fresh (BF 5) breezes through early next week. Low to medium (20-45%) rain chances today and tonight with increase to a medium to high (30-70%) chance by Thursday, before decreasing to a low chance once again on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 ERC values will improve to the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the end of the week. While ERC values will be decreasing, relative humidity values will be improving with 30-45% Wednesday and above 40% across all of South Texas Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 95 79 94 / 30 40 40 30 Victoria 77 99 74 99 / 10 60 40 10 Laredo 77 101 77 99 / 0 20 20 30 Alice 77 98 76 98 / 10 30 30 30 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 50 50 40 20 Cotulla 77 99 77 98 / 0 20 20 30 Kingsville 78 97 77 96 / 20 40 30 30 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 90 / 40 40 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...JCP/84