Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
903 FXUS64 KCRP 011143 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 - Flash flood watch in effect Thursday afternoon through Friday. Heavy rain expected at times across all of South Texas. - Marginal risk of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night. Strong winds are the primary threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 The remnants of hurricane Polo have merged with a deep trough over the western US and a cut-off low is not prominent over Colorado and New Mexico. At the surface, a cold front is developing associated with this system and will push eastward over the next couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty in how exactly the rain plays out and how quickly the front moves through. The probability of a morning round of convection appears to be decreasing based on current radar/satellite trends and how models are initializing. Most high res models have either given up on the morning line completely or at least backed off on how much convection there will be. That said, will keep mainly low end (20- 30%) pops for the morning with the exception of western parts of Webb and LaSalle county where things could start ramping up a bit earlier. The best potential for convection will be in the afternoon and overnight hours today and tonight with daytime heating and the mid-level low/trough moving closer. Regardless of when and where the rain occurs, with PWAT values nearly off the charts, the rain will fall very fast and heavy when it falls. PWAT value on the 18Z CRP sounding was 2.41", down a bit to 2.28" at the 00Z sounding. These are well above the 90th percentile in climatology and around the daily Max values. CRP almost certainly tops the current max value for tomorrow which is an outlier low record of 2.09". These high moisture levels are capable of producing rainfall rates 2-3"/hr, with isolated cells producing even higher rates. Probabilities of 48 hour rainfall through Friday over 3" are moderate to high over the western portions of the area, but not out of the question east with any given slow-moving storm capable of dumping that much. The forecast struggle does not end after the Thursday/Thursday night rains, as the convergence line (stalled boundary) is likely to set up near the coast and keep rain chances going through the weekend, potentially into early next week, but this would be mainly along the immediate coast and into the marine areas. We also will see a couple of tropical waves move through the Gulf further enhancing moisture. Bottom line, it`s going to rain...potentially a lot...and the forecast is still pretty tricky. Taking a moment to talk temperatures, today is tricky...but with the lower probability of a morning round of convection, temps will likely once again be in the mid and upper 90s for most of the area. If convection begins earlier, this could certainly fall with some areas not getting out of the 80s. Speaking of 80s...it looks like a lot of highs in the 80s for the foreseeable future, finally getting back to normal or slightly below. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Rain chances will continue to increase throughout the day. Winds will be gusty in the afternoon and decrease a little after 00z. After 14-15z across the western sites and 20-21z across the easternsites, TSRA will be more likely. While persistent TSRA are not expected, confidence is low on a single window for convection. Most sites will see pockets of VFR throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeast flow will continue this morning. Small craft should exercise caution tonight. Winds weaken to moderate levels this afternoon, and weaken further to gentle levels friday, shifting to the north behind a weak boundary. There will be a low to medium chance for showers and storms today, increasing tonight through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Increasing moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms starting today through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible across all of South Texas, with widespread wetting rainfall expected to limit fire weather concerns through the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 77 88 75 / 60 80 90 70 Victoria 97 73 90 70 / 70 90 90 60 Laredo 95 73 84 70 / 70 90 90 90 Alice 97 73 88 71 / 60 90 90 70 Rockport 93 78 90 75 / 50 80 80 80 Cotulla 91 72 83 70 / 80 80 70 80 Kingsville 95 75 89 73 / 70 80 90 80 Navy Corpus 91 80 88 78 / 40 70 80 90 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ229>232-239>244. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...JCP/84