Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
689 FXUS64 KCRP 052330 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Hot and humid conditions persist today - Fire Danger Statement in effect from 1-7 PM today - Increased rain chances return this weekend into early next week with highest chances (60 to 70%) Sunday into Monday - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding Sunday and Sunday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Conditions will be, you guessed it, hot and humid once again today with highs in the upper 90s to lower 105s around the region. This is due to the continued influence of the upper level ridge that is influencing the calm and warm conditions. This is expected to come to an end over the next few days though ahead of our next chance for rain. The next couple of days seems to still have some degree of uncertainty though most models have continued to back off in terms of activity. Though we will likely see some activity given the environment: influx off moisture associated with the remnants of PTC Lorena from the eastern Pacific and return flow off of the Gulf (around 2 inches) and a weak boundary that is expected to encroach the area from the north. A lot of uncertainty remains though, it`s seeming increasingly likely that this could be more of a isolated to scattered coverage type of event with some potentially locally heavy rainfall. QPFs have continued to stay around an inch with some isolated areas up to 2 inches specifically around the coast. Given the continued dry trend the PoPs for the Sunday/Monday period were adjusted down to around 60-70%. Should gain some more clarity as mesoscale models continue to come into range. WPC is still maintaining a marginal risk (5%) that still includes South Texas for Sunday and Sunday night. There looks to be some lingering rain chances on Tuesday as the boundary clears the area and the sea breeze arrives during the afternoon though we should dry out for the majority of the rest of the week. An upper-level ridge will continue to retrograde to the west of the region E-TX to Mexico through next week allowing for some energy to ride the ridge into the region later next week. This will allow for some low rain chances to creep back into the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle with a low chance of MVFR conditions tomorrow after 16z in and around thunderstorms. Gusty winds will continue for the next few hours before becoming weak and variable overnight. Winds will pick back up tomorrow morning as rain chances increase across the eastern terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly breeze (BF 3-4) is expected through Saturday before backing more easterly into early next week. Rain chances will quickly increase Friday night into Saturday and generally running in the 50 to 70% range each day through Tuesday. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds can be expected in and around stronger thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to critical levels and climatological normals ranging between 20-30% Friday afternoon. These low relative humidity values will coincide with Energy Release Component (ERC) values in the 70-89th percentile which could increase the probability of fire ignition. Winds will remain generally under 15 knots which will limit any further significant fire weather concerns. Fire weather concerns should diminish during the weekend as moisture and rain chances increase over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 94 78 92 / 10 50 40 70 Victoria 74 95 73 93 / 0 50 30 60 Laredo 79 102 78 98 / 0 30 30 60 Alice 75 97 75 93 / 0 40 30 60 Rockport 80 92 78 92 / 20 50 50 70 Cotulla 77 98 76 94 / 10 20 40 70 Kingsville 76 95 75 93 / 10 40 30 60 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 89 / 30 50 50 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...JCP/84