Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
717 FXUS64 KCRP 181749 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1249 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 - Scattered showers/storms push inland through this evening - Heat-related impacts continue through the upcoming week - Coastal flooding concerns diminishing after tonight && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Mid-level high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern throughout the forecast period. The tropical moisture riding around the southern periphery of this high pressure system that provided the Coastal Bend with much needed rain overnight will continue to push inland with the overall moisture thinning out throughout the day. CAMs such as the 12Z HRRR show that today`s rain activity along the coast will be confined to this morning, with further convection developing inland (west of Hwy 77) in the early afternoon. Additional accumulations of 1-2 inches in new storms (any rain is welcomed to help combat the drought setting in). After today, we slip more into this high pressure influence. So long will be the days of 2.00"+ PWATs as mid-levels dry out leaving most of the area with PWATs between 1.3-1.7" (at or slightly below the 50th percentile climatologically speaking). This translates to more isolated seabreeze activity through the upcoming week, but most places have a better chance of staying dry. At the surface, we switch from an easterly surface wind fetch to the normal southeasterly flow by tonight. Tonight`s high tide cycle will likely be the greatest threat for coastal flooding before the wave energy subsides through the late weekend and into the upcoming week. The above average temperatures continue to be the biggest hazard in the coming week with heat indices ranging from 105-110F and the HeatRisk climbing to Major/Extreme (level 3 and 4 of 4) by the upcoming mid-week time period. Continue to practice heat safety and hydrate, hydrate, hydrate! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions early in this TAF period are dictated by the presence of showers/storms. Brief reductions in VIS will be limited to any stronger storm. Showers/storms push inland with overall dissipation after 21-22Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF3-4) breeze is expected with 3-4 seas (decreasing to near 2 ft after Sunday). Occasional periods of fresh (BF 5) breezes through the upcoming mid-week. Rain chances will remain low (10-30%) daily. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the end of the week. While ERC values will be decreasing, relative humidity values will be improving above 40% across all of South Texas Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 Victoria 72 98 73 100 / 0 10 0 20 Laredo 75 101 76 102 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 73 98 73 99 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 79 92 79 93 / 20 20 10 10 Cotulla 75 99 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 90 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...AE/82