Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
612 FXUS64 KCRP 211143 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 643 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Rain chances return this week - Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Rain chances will slowly increase early this week with low chances (less than 20%) beginning Monday and increasing to low to medium chance (20-45%) by mid-week. One thing we will be closing monitoring in future forecast is the wet bias of the NBM, which could be bumping the low chances up to medium. Despite whether it`s a low or medium chance, there is confidence some showers or storms will develop each afternoon with the seabreeze. While temperatures will be warm and above average this week, heat index values are expected to remain below 110 degrees with a moderate to high chance for heat- related impacts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions remain possible at ALI as a low cloud deck and patchy fog has been building over that region for the past 30 to 45 minutes. This should burn off by midmorning returning to VFR. Elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the period. Winds will increase as the seabreeze comes in this evening with gusts around 15-20kts. They will subside a little after sunset around 02Z and become generally light and variable across South Texas. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Seas will decrease from 2-3 feet to 2 feet seas through Wednesday as light to gentle (BF 2-3) breezes continue. By midweek, gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breezes will develop, with seas increasing to 3-4 feet. A low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will develop midweek and continues. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the weekend and into next week. Minimum relative humidity values will be above 30% across all of South Texas Thursday through the period. With winds being light, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 0 Victoria 100 74 101 74 / 20 0 10 0 Laredo 102 76 100 75 / 10 0 20 10 Alice 99 74 98 74 / 20 0 20 10 Rockport 93 79 93 79 / 20 0 20 10 Cotulla 102 76 101 75 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 97 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 82 / 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...NP/92