Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
820 FXUS64 KCRP 141730 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Moderate to Major Heat Risk through early this week - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend, with the main threats being locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Rain Chances increasing again late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Synoptic Overview: South Texas will remain sandwiched between two H5 ridges, one positioned over the Atlantic and the other over the SW US through most of the forecast period. At the surface, warm southeasterly flow will largely prevail through the period along the western periphery of the eastern High, and eastern periphery of the western US thermal low. Overall this period will see reduced mid- latitude (i.e. westerly influences) as we begin to transition to more of a tropical/easterly dominated climatic regime (which will likely largely persist for the next few months). Details: PWATs generally in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range, MUCAPEs in the 3500-4000 J/kg (both roughly corresponding to the 75th to 85th climo percentiles) will prevail through the weekend. These thermodynamic parameters combined with weak surface convergence focused along the coast and sea-breezes will support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the S-SE component of the low-lvl winds would expect that low-lvl convergence will be maximized over northern portions of the coastal bend so consequently. Light flow aloft and unimpressive shear profiles should preclude the development of organized storms, although wet microbursts always remain a possibility with CAPE values this high. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding is a threat with HREF LPMM maxima of over 2 inches focused near the Victoria Crossroads Sunday afternoon. However, the scattered storm coverage and a moderate southerly component of the low-lvl flow should keep any hydro threat localized. Outside of any storms the main concern will be heat, with peak heat indices in the 105-112 range and the only real relief coming in the form of thunderstorm outflows and convective debris cloud cover. Heading into early next week, slightly drier air (pwats decreasing down to 1.5 to 1.6 inches) will begin to filter in by Tuesday- Wednesday, which should reduce storm coverage into the isolated range, focused largely near the coast and Gulf waters. Seasonably high MaxT and Max ApparentT values can be expected to persist keeping low-end heat concerns going through the period. Forecast uncertainty increases heading into the Thursday-Friday timeframe as deeper tropical moisture, characterized by PWATs near 2 inches, begins to lift northward. There remains uncertainty in both the northward extent of the moisture surge as well as with the northward extent of any forcing associated with an inverted trough/tropical wave feature. However, the signal is strong enough to at least support an increase in PoPs/Sky and a slight decrease in temperatures for Thu/Fri relative to mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon with MVFR conditions creeping back into the forecast for a couple sites after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue impacting VCT through this afternoon with chances decreasing after sunset. Rain chances will return to VCT late tomorrow morning with a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms from 15-18z. All sites will return to VFR tomorrow morning as winds increase once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 South-southeasterly moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) will persist into next week, with a few periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution, largely in the Tue-Wed timeframe. A low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist daily through the middle of next next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 94 79 93 / 10 20 10 30 Victoria 76 89 74 89 / 10 50 10 40 Laredo 80 101 78 101 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 77 96 75 96 / 10 20 10 20 Rockport 82 90 80 90 / 20 30 20 40 Cotulla 80 99 77 100 / 10 20 10 10 Kingsville 79 95 77 94 / 10 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 82 89 81 89 / 20 30 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NC/91 AVIATION...JCP/84