314
FXUS64 KCRP 132327
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large
portion of South Texas today through Thursday.

- Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM today.

- Low rain chances Monday, then increasing to a medium chance
Thursday.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions remain possible through mid week,
mainly across the inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Deep moisture is increasing well across the area today with
satellite TPW values nearing 2" along the coast. A weak shortwave
rotating through under the ridge could be enough to help develop a
few sea breeze showers and storms this afternoon, along with some
daytime heating showers that have developed in the Victoria
Crossroads. Moisture levels decrease some tomorrow, but could still
see a few showers/storms, mainly in the Victoria Crossroads. After
that, below normal moisture levels Tuesday and Wednesday should
result in little to no rain chance. Another wave of moisture moves
in for Thursday with moderate rain chances that day. Much drier air
moves in for the weekend and could actually give us a bit of a break
in minimum temps. More on that in a moment.

Not much change in the summer heat through this period as what has
been the warmest September on record for all three of our climate
sites will continue to see above normal temperatures for the next
several days. For reference, normal highs are as follows: CRP and
VCT 90-91, LRD 93-94.  At least through Wednesday highs west will be
above 100 with mid and upper 90s east. Will have to see how much
this increasing moisture and cloud cover Thursday will do, but we
should drop at least a couple degrees off for a day or two - that
said, the increased moisture would keep it feeling just as hot! Heat
index values through mid-week will top out around 110, and will
continue to monitor for potential heat advisories daily. The drier
air Friday/Saturday likely brings highs back above 100 west. As
previously mentioned, the drier air late in the week should allow
for a bit more efficient cooling, allowing low temperatures to drop
into the lower 70s. Until then though, upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Isolated, but strong thunderstorms have developed along the sea
breeze across the Brush Country this afternoon. These storms are
expected to diminish over the next 1-2 hours. Have included TEMPO
for LRD and COT to account for any convection that does move
across those TAF sites. Outside of the convection, generally VFR
conditions will prevail through much of the TAF cycle. Brief MVFR
CIGs can be expected early Monday morning between 09-14Z across S
TX. MVFR VSBYs will also be possible briefly across VCT. S-SE
winds will relax overnight, then restrengthen mid to late Monday
morning with gusts 22-29 knots Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Mainly moderate onshore flow is expected through much of this week
with, potentially weakening to gentle to moderate for the weekend.
After scattered showers and storms today, rain chances will decrease
through Tuesday before increased chances return Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  98  80  98 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          77 100  77  98 /  20  20  10  10
Laredo            79 104  78 105 /   0  10   0   0
Alice             76 101  76 102 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          81  94  81  94 /  10  20  10   0
Cotulla           77 104  77 104 /  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        78  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  95  83  93 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-240>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...TE/81