Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
493 FXUS64 KCRP 201124 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 624 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Low-end seabreeze showers/storms through Wednesday with lower confidence in precipitation after mid-week - Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026 Mid-level high pressure... That`s been the statement of the summer. While we continue this trend through the forecast period, closer to the surface, there is a tad bit more going on. Across the western Gulf, the tropical moisture that was advected into Texas in the past week has dispersed leaving much of the region with PWAT values below the 50th percentile for this time of year (1.3-1.5"). For that reason, there is higher confidence that seabreeze won`t be as active for the remainder of the afternoon. A few streamer showers may push toward the upper Coastal Bend Sunday morning, and while PWATs climb back up to 1.7-2.0", there is not much support for organized showers/storms in terms of a lifting mechanism. Monday has a slightly better chance for showers thanks to any residual outflow from storms in North Texas approaching the Texas coast. The convergence of weak outflow winds approaching the seabreeze may trigger the seabreeze to be more active, but general confidence is low and thus capped PoPs Monday to 15-20%, with similar percentages along the coastal (seabreeze) through Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, global models are showing a bit more northeasterly winds across much of the Southern US with a stronger NE to SW gradient over the Gulf. This fetch across the Gulf will gradually increase seas (3-4 ft), but additionally, this wind direction brings SLIGHTLY drier air through the coastal plains. For this reason, while there are 20-40% PoPs from Wednesday across South Texas, there is low confidence that this will actually play out due to a wetter bias from the NBM. My suspicion is that these PoPs will trend drier with subsequent model runs, but this will be dependent on the strength of the gradient across the Gulf. South of this easterly flow, Caribbean tropical moisture will round out the Yucatan Peninsula with the northeasterly flow bringing this moisture (and greater rain chances) more towards Mexico`s Gulf coastline and closer to deep South Texas. What will be guaranteed with high confidence is the 90/low 100 degree weather remaining in place through the forecast period. Before the slightly drier air moves in mid-week, the HeatRisk will climb to Major (level 3 of 4) with isolated areas of Extreme. Beyond mid-week, the overall extent of Major HeatRisk spatially decreases. That`s the best Fall weather I can see on my side of things for now. You`re more than welcome to autumnal-related drinks... as long as you step into the coffee shop for AC relief (but don`t forget to supplement that hot drink with water for your hydration)! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Some patchy fog to at times dense fog has been effecting the ALI terminal. This will mix out by midmorning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the region thereafter. Relatively light winds will be expected through the TAF cycle. A low to medium chance for another round of round of patchy to dense fog around the ALI terminal will exist. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026 2-3 ft seas tonight will decrease to more 2 ft seas through Wednesday with light to gentle onshore winds becoming more moderate in the afternoons. Beyond mid-week, winds become more east/northeasterly with seas increasing back to 3-4 ft. Morning streamer showers possible through Tuesday with 20-40% percent chances for showers/storms after mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 78 94 77 / 10 0 20 0 Victoria 97 75 100 74 / 10 0 20 10 Laredo 100 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 91 80 93 80 / 20 0 20 0 Cotulla 99 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 91 82 / 20 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JCP/84 AVIATION...NP/92